Does trend following have an edge?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Visaria, Sep 7, 2010.

  1. Texasdj

    Texasdj

    Yes. Nice catch on your part. These cycles can last for a period of time. But they are ever changing, so be cautious trusting the patterns to continue. Best wishes!!
     
    #91     Sep 9, 2010
  2. More efficient would be to watch for price to make a lower high or a higher low, based a consistent methodology.

    But that would be too much to ask, huh?:)
     
    #92     Sep 9, 2010
  3. In the world of investing and trading, people always have the choice to operate from the vantage point of their strengths or weaknesses.

    Those who are not enjoying success often turn to operating from the vantage point of their weaknesses.

    The CW emotions of trading and investing usually prevail it turns out.

    This fear, anxiety and anger can carry over into most any area of knowledge skills and/or experience.

    One of the most pervasive themes of contemporary prectices is the "edge" and few can resist its alure for making money from a betting orientation.

    The general underlying theme of most dialogues is how devistating it can be to not have an open mind.

    I find that one of the greatest delights in the eternal dialogue is seeing people swing, mentally, into the stream of the cutting edge of moving the market trading knowledge, skills and experience forward.

    Trends relate as closely as anything to the main current of the iterative refinement of optimizing taking the market's offer through increased effectiveness and efficiency.

    Today the whales do taking at an annual rate equivalent to two or three hours of the market's offer in the ES. Examining this disparaty is one of the most intriguing mysteries of modern times.

    Soro's views articulated in his reflexivity are just as exciting as Dow's views on the bounds of markets that determine its direction. Neither were "followers" or specifically "edge" oriented. Both are exciting examples of studies in learning how markets work and using that knowledge, skill and experience to forward the making of money.

    I settled on pool extraction in my first weeks as a trader and discovered there was no noise nor anomalis in the market. "Knowing that I know" has always been a good orientation for extracting, optimally, the market's continuing offer.

    Why with all the public information available to anyone, would anyone waste their time dealing through their personal weaknesses? Obvoiusly fear, anxiety and anger dominante these people's orientation as a consequence of not knowing if they know what is going on.

    What is the bottom line for anyone who wishes to enjoy the freedom the world offers to all of us?

    I think it is just a matter of taking a "time out" to find out what is going on. A matter of several days.

    Doige commented on the frontiers of brain science. (See "The Brain that Changes Itself".)

    Buckingham and Clifton of Gallup took the trouble and interest to scour 30 years of Gallup Polls to determine what makes people tick and how to go about realizing one's potential. One of our clients who later became a staffer, introduced us to their works. "First, Break All the Rules" sets the scene for what makes systems of people work well and what good leadership really means. Next, the reader of "Now, Discover Your strengths" takes you on the exciting trip of getting straight how to come close the realizing your potential. At the end of chapter 3 you discover how to use the 14 element alphnumeric code to enter a website and take a test to find out your five most important strengths. 34 are contained in the possible set. All are explained in the book as well. Millions of people contributed from 63 countries. In these books the myth of trying to improve weakensses is debunked and replaced.

    The final read is Zinn's book on "mindfulness". This classic introduces how the potential of the mind works.

    Say a person took the lap through these four thin books over a few days, high liter in hand. It would be difficult to step back into the ET urinal at the very least.

    How, then would the person reorient to the extraction of the market's offer and its measurement? Probably, purposefully.

    If you know that you can make the same % in three hours that it takes Winston and 180 quants to make in a year, isn't it worth stepping out of the urinal and getting the job done personally?

    Daily, people prove to us all that it isn't. What could this thread have been like if a person who was provided an answer to a question just took the trouble to acknowledge it or even say thanks? Too much for that person, he has axes to grind and he can't understand the facts at this point. There is no triumph of weaknesses.

    What could any thread on trend monitoring and analysis be like for anyone who was building his mind and strengths? The subject is making 6 points on 30 point equivalent of margin in three hours.

    Draw he timeline of the 30 plus contributors from 1790 to 1957; discover the origins and nature of trend monitoring and analysis (TMA). there are about 150 contributions. I began with 72 of these in 1957; priceless is the name of the trip. It is the definition of a lifetime of freedom.

    do a search on me and find that the first reference is just more garbage from the viewpoint of weakness while standing in a urinal..... funny, very funny......
     
    #93     Sep 9, 2010
  4. Did Surf vend books/ systems/ seminars on E'trader? I joined in 2006 so maybe I missed some prior history?
     
    #94     Sep 9, 2010
  5. Surf sold his wears off this site over the last 6 and a half years I've been here and it was the reason he was banned and banned and banned and banned and banned and banned and banned and banned.

    You will never find a single post by me selling one single item, including books, systems or seminars.
     
    #95     Sep 9, 2010
  6. He had a clothing line?
     
    #96     Sep 9, 2010
  7. I wouldn't call what he sold as a clothing line.
     
    #97     Sep 9, 2010
  8. Come to think of it, he does have a dashing sense of style.
     
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    #98     Sep 9, 2010
  9. . . . him and Snookie are right up there as style icons .
     
    #99     Sep 9, 2010
  10. I met Prof here at Elite.

    If you do a search, and can wade thru the BS, his code is open source. If you have coding skills you can duplicate the indicators. The reason for this is that it is not the indicators, but the environment that the indicators create.

    Surf never, ever, posted anywhere how he got his NeoGann Channels.

    He has been as opaque as Prof has been open. The problem is that traders will want to add their own seasoning to the trading soup, and then when the soup tastes bad, they want to blame the person who gave them the original recipe.

    Now how bizarre is that ???
     
    #100     Sep 9, 2010