Hey there I have a question I recently was sent an invitation to a seminar in Vegas by a firm I wont name yet. In the ad they talk about providing an AUTOMATED system that the head trader claims is his FAVOURITE system. I saw the results they looked pretty good in that for the past fir the past two years it averaged around 35K per one car. Then I dug a little deeper in actual fact the results were simulated results with NO comms or slippage. Hey i think why does this system not have real results. It is the guys fav. So I send them an email asking why would they only have SIM results on the guys fav system and the reply i get is that (and I love this) they arent black box traders but isnt that what they are trying to sell? They also say they use discretion trading it ??? I thought it was automated which is supposesd to take the discretion out of it. I feel they are taking the piss does anyone else agree or am I just being overly harsh? Cheers
Bogan, Sounds like you did just enough investigating that your gut is probably right on this one. Most people are only going to see that 35k and focus on that. If there's one thing I learned with these vendors over the years - if it sounds too good to be true, it almost always is.
But these guys are advertising this thing as the Gurus system yet he doent trade it as it is. If he is doing some modification why not tell people? The obvious answer is because he isnt trading it. I have never used an Auto system which is one reason I am asking but the point is to take the emotion out of the equation. So if they are tweaking it let they should let everyone else know.
<i>"they arent black box traders but isnt that what they are trying to sell?"</i> Any 100% automated system offered to the public is destined to fail. That is an absolute rule, no exceptions. Whenever you hear - read about a fully automated approach where everyone gets the exact-same signals each time, there is no possible way it can succeed. Take the ER2 for example. If someone tries to market a mechanical system for that, what will happen? Enough system buyers to absolutely overwhelm the signals is guaranteed. Try filling 300 ER contracts at 824.40 in group-grope fashion where everyone gets the same signal. Limit orders would fill 10 to 50 contracts at most. Everyone else pounds salt with no fill while watching intended trade run away. Market orders would complete the fill several ticks to couple handles away from 24.40 intended. Black-box mechanical systems must be protected from disclosure, or they are doomed to fail.
I agree but that is the round about point i am trying to make they are trying to lure noobs into this set and forget system knowing it is destined to fail that is what I dont like. Dont forget they are making a lot of money doing it at the same time.
100% scam. If it makes money then why do they have to peddle it? They would protect the shit out of it if it worked.
If there is a discretionary aspect, then how could there be simulated results for it? Keep your wallet safe.
If theres a $100 bill on the floor don't bother to pick it up, because if it was really there someone would already have taken it. Irrelevant, but I like it.
Why would everyone using a black box signal generating system trade the ER2 as you describe? I think it is very apparent that a system that presents extremely high win/loss ratio capabilities would have traders move to something like the ES. The liquidity issue is quite obvious and traders will gravitate to liquidity. Boy what a great problem to actually have! Hey, how about the old 30 year bond....fun!