there is a picture of a bear on the cover of this weekends Barrons and everyone says when that happenes,a bottom or short term bottom is in. however,since so many people think thta.perhaps we have further to go. just rambling here because i'm bored and waiting for the football games. personally,i think we at are going to 11,200 area,the old high on the dow but of course we can bounce back to the 50 dma.
It sure does feal close to a bottom but I don't think were quite there yet. DOW goes to 11260 first imo.
short term there has to be some kind of bounce, since markets are deeply oversold here. longer term, as someone on ET astutely pointed out: this may be one of those occasions when the crowd is correct.
The jury is really still out. If this credit default swap issue is going to blowup like subprime, then I agree with you. But increasing money supply and lowering taxes, although damaging to the dollar, has worked to pop up aggregate demand (consumer) and supply (long term economic growth) in the past, so I don't see any reason why it shouldn't in the future. Before you know it, they'll be passing bills to pay off our home equity lines. Then ... the consumer is no longer tapped. Take a look - I did this fundie analysis last week and reflected on past bear markets/valuations. http://scriabinop23.blogspot.com/2008/01/obligatory-armchair-s-valuation.html
Before they pass bills to pay off your home equity line (aka 2nd mortgage), they would have to kill a lot of us (the majority) who object to such things.
They will nationalize the mortgage industry. Every one paying a low mortgage rate to the government. No foreclosures allowed. If any one default on the mortgage, it just adds to the principles and the rate will be crack up a bit as a punishment, when one make a payment for a few months the rate is brought down again. That would be a perfect salvation plan. Failing that, the government can nationalize the whole real estate industry. All land and real estabel becomes public property. Every one must sell to the government for cash. Then pay a rent to government to continue occupy the houses. If there is no private buy/sell of real estates, then there is no foreclosures. Just some wild communist ideas.
Even better, after buying all the real estate, the government could bulldoze it into the ground and build dormitories for the people. But the cheapest solution would be to require employers to provide showers and a communal cooking area, along with a sleeping drawer (about 3x4x6 feet) for each employee -- that would also solve transportation and energy problems, which would allow people to sell their cars on ebay in order to raise some money to spend in the company's vending machines.
Corporations won't be allowed to have vending machines. Only the government can. Take the income all the FAT MOTHERFUCKERS in this country spend on vending machine trash and you have the whole mortgage crisis fixed.