does this market seem manipulated???

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dac8555, Dec 1, 2006.

  1. dac8555

    dac8555

    the pure lack of volatility lately....and that crazy buying at the close today seemed VERY coordinated...almost manipulated.

    Either there REALLY IS a PPT or...all the big boys on the street are taking advantage of game theory to do what they want with the market.


    does it seem odd to anyone else?
     
  2. It is to everyone on wall streets advantage to keep the market close to current levels, their bonuses are on the line.

    Index futures contracts expire in less than two weeks, the big gyration over the last week is the unwinding of positions.

    I expect the market to stay close to its highs till year end.
     
  3. the very idea of "manipulation" is somewhat suspect.

    there is only one way to make stocks go up - demand must exceed supply.

    who cares WHY demand exceeds supply, or WHOse demand it is (if u are a trader). the point is to recognize supply/demand inbalance and capitalize on the moves. if peeps are buying and pushing it up. it goes up. that is not "manipulation".

    its only manipulation when u miss the move, or get caught on the wrong side :)

    what matters is that you buy lower and sell higher. Whomever ramps it up is irrelevant vs. the fact that it did, and that you capitalized on it (for a trader)

    if you want to know HOW people are positioned, COT reports provide an answer of course
     
  4. Think about it. Fund managers literally have to get rid of billions of shares. If you had to sell that many shares you would have to sell a little, wait for a pullback, and repeat. They all know they are in the same position. They all know they can't sell at one time and cause a panic. It is in their best interest to hold up the market as long as they can until more retail investors get involved.
     
  5. This game is all about futures and program trading, when bigger players jump in to move the futures, programs get triggered and then stocks must follow. Us retail traders have no choice but to anticpate their next move and front run them, ride on their coatails and chase the move, or step aside. With enough money and collaboration, any market can be moved short term.
     
  6. EXCEPT DEMAND DOES NOT EXCEED SUPPLY MY FRIEND......

    Check out the volume on the down moves vs volume on the up moves....


    come back when you have your theory corrected.....


    Next
     
  7. Too simplistic my friend. Who is buying those contracts on the 'down volume' ?

    Or do they go into a large crate , warehoused for later retrieval?


    Not 1 in 1000 really has a clue as to how the markets work. Maybe less than that.


    Oh yeah, maybe you can correct the title of this thread to "How manipulated are the markets"
     
  8. like i said,

    nobody claims "manipulation" when they catch the move.

    they claim "manipulation" when they miss the move, or get stopped out... or worse when they are short and hope and pray for a reversal as their position moves against them

    i hear this all the time and it usually comes from losing traders. winning traders do not talk about "manipulation".

    the index futures are a PURE proxy for supply/demand.

    that's what i like about them. a single MM in a thin issue CAN move it around a lot, but it takes HEAVY buying pressure to move the DOW for pete's sake. we are talking many billions of dollars market capitalization

    if demand is not exceeding supply, the market CANNOT go up

    if you don't understand how supply/demand and a 2 way auction process works, you shouldn't be trading
     
  9. All markets are as manipulated as they can be ... and its a good thing. No. Its a great thing.

    Because, as suggested here, those who can read the moves, whatever causes them stand to profit handsomely.

    I love the HSI :)
     
  10. Yea Dac's short didnt go so well this afternoon so is trying to blame his failure on some sort of manipulation.
     
    #10     Dec 1, 2006