Just doing some thinking - The DJ30 has gained 15% from its recent low in just about 3(three) weeks time. To some, this indicates that earnings, earnings growth and overall business conditions will be improving looking out over the near term - However The interest rate on a 10 year note is at a 40(forty) year low. Historically, bond prices(yields fall) would normally rise when business conditions were worsening. Can someone tell me what am I missing ? The equity gains can't be all short covering, can it?
Sure. This - the market move in an illogical manner... speaking in the conventional sense. And the DOW being up fifteen percent means one thing, and one thing only - more buying than selling - that's it.
I have to agree in principle with William. Fluctuations in the market of 30 stocks do not mean any expectations of anything. This has been a firly narrow breadth rally, mostly in blue blue chips on anemic volume. We goin' down... but not til we see 9500 +/- 200. Although, all I really know is....
"Can someone tell me what am I missing ? " sure.short term stocks dont trade on earnings.they trade on sentiment.we are now in all news is good news mode.how long it lasts no one knows.
The stocks ran up in anticipation of a fed funds rate cut and the accounting certification deadline. Institutions must place their bets ahead of major news releases. That said, I am at a loss trying to explain why NASDAQ was up today, in spite of Goldman's downgrade of SUNW and EMC , and a bad Philly index reading.
I never read too much into an options expiration...I have seen many many swings in the past 6 months were the market will just "pin" a pivot range and just sit there for two days and congest just prior to reversing or breaking out to another entirely new range...It's just a very difficult few days in the month to try and game longer term trend direction...Basically either scalp it or wait for it to tip its hand again...
Goldman downgrade SUNW, EMC so they can cover their short and go long OR the 'Agency' turn up the HAARP machine to make market go up, check out http://www.superforce.com/email-releases/HAARP.htm and its plot http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/riomet...h=24H&latest=on&quickPlot=on&endTime=20020817