I used to puzzle about this but had an aha moment awhile back. YM doesnt always lead the ES but often it does when it matters most and for a good reason and thats all Im going to say on the subject.
That is very helpful BB. A little expansion will not go astray, otherwise your comment is consigned to the bleachers.
If you want to think that YM is leading the ES, no problem, its pretty subjetive, so none can have the truth on this topic. Anyway, i think the ES leads the YM for many reasons, including, for instance the volume traded on ES (and his components) is 10 or more times bigger. You should follow both at the same time and get your own thoughts. Another question that may came up from this thread is: "the indexes leads the futures or the futures leads the indexes?".
exactly chauncey 1 It is like try to grab a circle by it's end. Everyone will have an opinion on how it is done, despite the fact that they have never done it.
NQ used to be the wild child a few years back, 40 and 50 point swings weren't uncommon. You'll be lucky to get 4 and 5 point swings now. It's a subjective thing really but I prefer the way the ES and ER move in comparison to the NQ. Just trade the vehicle you feel most comfortable or attuned with.
I know a chap that swears by tikki extremes. Perhaps the question should be does YM lead the ES in any sort of exploitable way. Some lead other follow.
There is something about "causal thinking," set down several hundred years ago, which basically states: If event 'a' preceeds event 'b', it is not necessarily true that 'a' caused 'b'.