Does The Yield Spread Predict Recessions In The Euro Area?

Who says I got one or even know what it is?

I don't got no Holy Grail. I just know what it DOESN'T look like.

 

Do you like my work?

 

What sort of answer do you expect from me?

 

I expect a bitchy one and nothing less.

Seriously though. There was an article written recently stating that the predictions I made in my book through my analysis was right. What is wrong with a future debt dependency model predicted through past borrowing habits. Isn't that the principle of all estimation calculations.

 

1) Were you "right" because of luck OR because your model is "that good"?
2) Does the future conform to the past or is it mostly unpredictable? :eek:

 

I was right on all occassions across the calculations of each EU country. Seriously it is not that difficult to see where I am coming from. There are patterns in the borrowing habits of each country and you can tell the dependency on outside investment and the strength of the domestic economy to growth out of the recession.

 

Dang! I'm intrigued to read the rest of the paper/link. :eek:

 

Well, I am sorry to disappoint then... The answer is "no".

 

No to what exactly it was not an open or closed question. Unless you mean you will not look at it. In which case why not?

 

Why don't you then?