This has turned into a Semantics argument. You can't have a discussion when all participants are arguing different arguments based on different definitions.
Last 20 includes some very bad timing as it started with the dot com crash..But that's a good objective starting point..Regardless,it certainly outperformed inflation..
Why would one jump in early to go long? The stats show a stock remains above its SMA for 1-10 days is 67%. For 1,2 or up to 10 days. Then the data shows only 10% hold for 20 days. The play is to short those that are above the SMA after the 10 day mark, or at least go short on a lower low. That is the edge in this data set
I would,be curious to know what percent of stocks that are 5% (or some vol adj percent)above the MA stay above for more than 20 days??
It is a fact that real trading edges (anomalies, regulation glitches, etc) often end. There is no argument to be had on this.
That type of analysis is very useful, if consistent. It would be great to see if it works by sector and/or price range of stocks, or adapt parameters as needed.
The data is indeed interesting and would be helpful. I just think the wrong trade was concluded form the data provided. When would one go long if the data shows the "trend" only lasts 10 days max?