Either you phrased this incorrectly, or it is a very silly question. What do you think the index arbs do? Sometimes the pit traded futures led, other times the cash. If there is a wide enough spread (determined by time till expiration and interest rates which arb can borrow money) and cash is higher, sell programs kick in. If there is a wide enough spread (determined by time till expiration and interest rates which arb can borrow money) and cash is lower, buy programs kick in. Indexarb.com may be helpful Is this what you meant? That's what makes them correleated obviously.
Jack, do you count ScottD and Roughtrader among your "successful" traders? A few days ago you said ScottD is still working on "Cashcow"... even though ScottD's last post on ET was over two months ago and in it he said that Cashcow 1.2, which had been certified by you (Jack Hershey), is not consistently profitable. I've asked ScottD for an update here but haven't heard back. Maybe you can get him to update us? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2438060#post2438060 Your numbers on Roughtrader's profitability keep changing as you're confronted with facts... why is that? And why, given all your claims, has Roughtrader made so little in profits after two months? He started his journal 03-25-09 11:07 PM and since then your story has gone from: 04-23-09 01:26 PM "For SCT like trading, rough trader takes 1500 dollars to 94,000 dollars" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2399521&#post2399521 To: 04-26-09 06:51 PM "Bottom line: looks like roughtrader makes 20,000 a month on two contracts average while scaling out of entries on his ATS" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2403231#post2403231 To: 05-22-09 07:28 PM "Rough trader is only making a couple thousand a month on a couple of contracts. He needs to make one adjustment to make 20,000 a month. He needs to add 18 contracts to his trading cars" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2437715#post2437715
Here's another successful jack hershey trader: LOL, I guess we can consider his comments on this thread to be null and void!
Trader666 Here are a few updates for you. The Cash Cow ATS of Scott's is proceding along quite well. It is a team effort and there is a daily exchange (holidays excepted) on the four aspects of the poolextraction routine (MADA). A dashboard depicts the monitoring. It has lights (several for each panel) and an overall panel that depicts what is going to any execution platform. Analysis is done on two levels: analysis and development. Decisions and Action is done by coding and outputs of coding. This ia looped back to the Monitoring panels and all trades show on the proce panel. Price is not used in the MADA. Currently we are using May days for iterative refinement in version 1.3 the Basic core. You saw the 6th where 17.25 points was the net. Everyone on the team uses the Cash Cow in real time by deploying the MADA and viewing M on a laptop separate from trading setups on full blown trading operations. Basic is the core. Basic Supreme is the first shell. The next shell is Intermediate and the outer shell is Expert. FYI, basic trades on channels, Intermediate trades on traverses and Expert trades tapes. Channels precipitate 4 to 7 trades a day; traverses do about 15 and tapes do about 30 or so. The basic core achieved a non fractal jumping coarse channel type trading from the four indicators in combination not including price which is NOT used. The excel analysis for the Basic was 83 lines. The Excel Analysis for basic supreme is about 750 lines. For basic about 15 output components from the four indicator panels were fed to the logic. The logic generated about 68 degrees of freedom which assured channel trading occurred as shown on the 06MAY09 chart. Previously we had used a different month as we debugged the basic core. For basic supreme, each panel indicator is enlarged to include all indicator cases and all the segments of a cycle. This is about 43 items per indicator as the feeds to the basic supreme logic. The Basic supreme was exchanged on 14APR09. Basically, the procedure is to use a chart as a dashboard and pour the lighting into the Excel analysis 20 bars at a time where ten columns (from components to final assemblies) define the line's functionality. Four sheets suffice to get through the day. The lights for each bar form a matrix and the market simply migrates from one operating point to another as real time unfolds or a test is run for analysis. For development, each panel is separate, poured and lines are added to advance the coding effort. For ease of communications, we use "pseudo code" and audio recordings 45 minutes each) instead of the logic circuits which started the project. Everything is dropped off and picked up and deleted according a shared schedule. We use initialling and time stamping as a team convention. This is an update and should satisfy your passive curiousity. since you do not trade futures, it is hard to dicern your interest. You may want to spend some time learning to trade from someone. Programming is not your forte as we all found out.
trader 666 et al. Roughtrader is doing a normal development of a system he has invented. It has run for a short whle with little capital deployeed in the market and a good size account available for ramping up when he gets to that stage of development. His rule of thumb for this is stated and available to you. The initial level is 40 points a month and it has done more in the past. A couple of contracts are used and their margin is probably the usual. If he soes not improve his ATS or his strategy, then all he has to do is make more money by using profits. Or he could add contracts by using more margin as well. The combination will take him to the milliionaire status as fast as he desires. I suggested that he ramp up to 20 contracts so he has more profits and less risk for his over all capital as the profits pile up. If he wanted to use the Cash Cow Basic with his 20 contracts, he could have a suitable beginner income of low five digits per day. I'm sure you can remember back that far in your early days when that was all you pulled down daily. Trading with 40 to 50 contracts would be he next stage. Making 35 to 40K a day would be happening on that beginner level he is on. After a while he may wish to not do the scaling out and just take all that the market offers. Everyone goes through just making a couple of thousand a month. Then they add contracts. I guess he only has 100,000 to work with as of now. Spyder explained he built three years salary and trading capital in 18 months. Roughtrader has 16 months to go, apparently. Think of all the years you have been carping as Spyder traded capital AFTER he went full time. As it turned out Spyder helped people and posted for five years after he went full time. Now the PhD's have a team. They are pro's now and going to work as a team. We all recognize that you have succeeded in getting a carping team together and you are little photoshoppers for our entertainment. I decided against getting an advertising agency; I already have one.
That's interesting because in ScottD's last post on ET over two months ago, he said that Cashcow 1.2, which had been certified by you (Jack Hershey), is not consistently profitable. I've quoted that post at this link and have asked ScottD for an update but haven't heard back. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2438060#post2438060 I'm sure ScottD would be happy to post an update if you ask him, given all you claim you've done for him.
Jack, you should take your own advice about learning how to trade... it must have been humiliating when you LOST 24% in that trading contest and unsuccessfully tried to obfuscate your way out of it on Usenet: http://groups.google.com/group/misc...a927db8ba840?hl=en&lnk=st&q=hershey+loses+24# Which may be why you chickened out when I challenged you to a trading contest? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1089241#post1089241 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1089742#post1089742 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1089925#post1089925 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1091102#post1091102 As for your programming comment... if you're referring to my backtest of your model of the price, volume relationship by buying the "0 to 7 turn" described in "Tomorrow's Paper Today" I got this equity curve using Spydertrader's code for the scoring: <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2014607>
Jack, my questions about Roughtrader were more rhetorical. Sorry but you've lost credibility speaking about him. In case you've forgotten, Roughtrader started his journal 03-25-09 11:07 PM and since then your story has gone from: 04-23-09 01:26 PM "For SCT like trading, rough trader takes 1500 dollars to 94,000 dollars" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2399521&#post2399521 To: 04-26-09 06:51 PM "Bottom line: looks like roughtrader makes 20,000 a month on two contracts average while scaling out of entries on his ATS" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2403231#post2403231 To: 05-22-09 07:28 PM "Rough trader is only making a couple thousand a month on a couple of contracts. He needs to make one adjustment to make 20,000 a month. He needs to add 18 contracts to his trading cars" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2437715#post2437715