Does Technical Analysis Work?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ironchef, Oct 8, 2018.

  1. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    #71     Oct 11, 2018
  2. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    So, to translate:
    1) You find that T/A works for you.
    2) You sell on purple arrows where mysteryblackline turns up.
    3) You buy on black arrows where mysteryblackline turns down.
    4) You contend that your system outperforms the lowly MACD.

    Fair summary? :D
     
    #72     Oct 11, 2018
    speedo likes this.
  3. schweiz

    schweiz

    Summary: everything always works, except for those for who it does not work.

    That's a fact.
     
    #73     Oct 11, 2018
    Sprout likes this.
  4. PistolPete

    PistolPete

    Yes absolutely
    Not quite like that , its just a trend filter that dictates the direction of intraday swings , there are other aspects to system that define the entry to enter trend and exit management
    as above
    I have been at this for almost 20 years and early in the process when i was green and used only generics like most here i built systems based on MACD , RSI and the like so yeah i know the systems i use will outperform generics on any metric you care to measure your systems on . Smooth fast curves totally testable due to the objective binary properties . its not for everyone of course because its a skillset not easily learnt , building indicator/filters that measure and define binary points accurately allow you to build decision trees that are adaptive and adjust to market conditions , even ones like the last few days ... rock on
     
    #74     Oct 11, 2018
  5. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    No. Not at all.

    My point wasn't to tout the RSI or any other TA technique in particular.

    I do believe TA works if used correctly. Some only believe it works because it is self fulfilling but yet can't explain how TA works looking back at markets prior to them being "discovered" and made public - as in for example the crash of 1929.

    BTW I do also use MACD sometimes but prefer 3/8/13 settings:
    SPX MACD.png
     
    #75     Oct 11, 2018
    tommcginnis likes this.
  6. tomorton

    tomorton

    I have known a few long-term shareholders, investors they called themselves. Some of them told me TA couldn't work, it had been proven repeatedly and plus there were no rich chartists.

    Whenever they became interested in buying a particular share, they would read the company's newsflow, get the Annual Report and read the Chairman's Statement, look at dividend and earnings and sales and brokers' recommendations and all the rest. Then they would ask, what is the price, and they might say something like, hmmm, this is good, it was 50 lower 6 months ago. Well, call me naive, but that sounds like TA to me.
     
    #76     Oct 11, 2018
    ironchef and tommcginnis like this.
  7. I find TA useful in a larger scheme of things. Fundamentals are also important to define risk.
     
    #77     Oct 11, 2018
  8. speedo

    speedo

    As usual these discussions originate without qualifying definition so they degenerate into a room full of blind people trying to define the elephant. As a day trader of equity futures, I pay no attention to fundamentals. My signals come from my charts and my rules from my trade plan. On the other hand if I were to put together a basket of stocks, both long and short to be held from days to months then yes, I would want to examine the fundamentals of the underlying issues.
     
    #78     Oct 11, 2018
    Sprout and schweiz like this.
  9. schweiz

    schweiz

    Exactly!

    Exactly!

    Exactly!
     
    #79     Oct 11, 2018
  10. ironchef

    ironchef

    Thank you for the link and thanks for the advice.
     
    #80     Oct 11, 2018