well, that's what cracks me up. As yet (in USA at least) there is no law against insider trading in forex that's why the high school dropout who fills water pitchers for Ben Bernanke is a multi billionaire
Would be hard to impose such laws on FX since it's not any exchange, but fragmented network of liquidity pools all over the world. Insider may trade using some off shore account and not be under jurisdiction of the law. Even play through some crappy spread betting companies registered somewhere on island of Man or like that. Impossible to trace.
ok, I hear ya, I think it's assumed that one side of the trade is always the bank I thought we were talking about who takes the other side and still 90% is just me buying or selling from another retail podunk trader, with of course, the bank in the middle making their cut so it's just as misleading to tell a forex trader he is trading against the bank as it is to tell a stock trader he is trading against Charles Schwab (even though at times that may be the case)
I still doubt even total volume of trades made by retail traders at all constitutes serious percentage.
it is not at all uncommon for speculators to be trading more corn than all farmers combined can grow in ten years you take all the retail traders out of the mix and just watch 10 banks trade amongst themselves, and it wouldn"t be much of a market to watch it's a myth they sell to small traders that you are trading with the big boys it's just you and the other guy in Turkey, bickering over a pip and that is where TA might work If I was using TA in forex, I would have an editing program in that eliminates big moves when somebody of consequence actually buys or sells
Big moves are still produced by the big boys. We are not interested in the noise, it's those moves we want. So watching big boys actions makes the most sense. Also, AFAIK, majority of noise volume are still banks MM activity and HFT lately, not retail guys playing with bucket shops.
ok, I'm within 1 pip of getting filled on that Great British Pound (or as I call it that "Goddamned British Pound") just me and the guy in Turkey, bickering over that last pip maybe I'll get some help from the big boys
whoops, I can kiss that one goodbye for a while was tryng to buy at 5214 I don't know if it was the big boys, but somebody came in and bought before I got filled, now it's going sky high (and I'm short, was just trying to unload half a position at BE)
commodities like corn are heavily traded,very liquid,there are institutions with large positions,and those are trackable thru the most traded prices,market profile multi day charts make that obvious, a smaller stock that trades at or less than a million contracts daily is of less interest to a larger money group,the less they are around(biggest acct in the room) the easier it is to manipulate by a smaller trader,big fish in a small pond scenario. The larger the volume, the more likely it is tradeable with ta. Back to fundamentals, the euro/usd is heavily manipulated ignoring TA and the institutions, moving in lockstep with the current currency wars,each country or block of countries(euro) printing away to keep the currency and economy afloat. Up until january maybe the institutions and currencies fed on each others fundamentals and TA. Recently, the methods(printing) haven't been improving the economies,any pause brings up bank runs,unmentionable unresolved debt from 08,and a plethora of doomsayers who haven't a clue anymore than the fed,imf ecb have as we are in uncharted waters. So at this exact moment,no TA is not working except in the very short term timeframes, and neither is fundamental analysis. Best to sit on hands and very nimbly stick toes in water as they are full of crocs for bulls and bears. It will change and go back to normal or a new normal,but for now we are in the middle of a game change,new rules, new game. It will eventually work itself back into the old game,no one makes money if their isnt some predictability,they need the small player to understand it or he wont trade,without the small player the large player has no one to take money from.