If someone has enough resources to move the market momentum on a longer time frame perspective I'll bet they know something. Or even if they dont... May as well join in and use risk management to get out if wrong.
So any really big order, by definition, must be "informed" and "correct"? And how about the person/people who holds the other side of each really big order? Must they be "informed" and "correct" as well?
1. Generally not true. Usually "more to come". 2. A dumbass might be someone formerly smart or now desperate who's decided to "take a plunge"... you don't know. You don't need to know that... Victor Niederhoffer?
Since from day one have used TA, I view it this way.....using a tightrope between two buildings and safety net, you start practicing and for next 1,000 attempts to walk it you fall, on the 1,001 you get all the way across, and you continue to practice, half times fall and other times make it, till 99% of the time you walk across it becomes like walking on a floor. In the beginning all say it can't be done and tightrope walking is useless whether using thin rope or thicker, it just is useless, but through experience, yours and not those of who have given up, you eventually conquer the ability to do so. Through my development of systems, I have found TA works in all timeframes, but if you expect to see one thing in 2 minute charts and then think it be in five minute, it often won't be there cause shorter timeframe shows quicker price. But works going to smaller timeframe as you can often see divergences from longer to shorter. TA is exactly like price is a delayed version of price though. As far as long term vs short term, the use of filters or rules must be more or less than using larger timeframes depending on what you aiming to recover through profits. You can't expect using same rules for both intraday and monthly charts, intraday will produce many signals of profit/loss whereas monthly much fewer cause of time. In order to build a 5% losing system whether in long term or intraday, you need more delaying indicators which will slow down signals to form, you concentrate on not having losses and not highest profits. Intraday actually has higher risks than long term and has lower rewards for me, most don't see it this way. In order to have very small losing %, you have to have larger stops, size of congestive waves, whereas if you study how to hedge longer term trades, your stops can be much lower than your trades on intraday. Also, targeting 5% losses does not mean 95% profits as one can have 50% breakevens and 45% targets are hit profitable trades. But bottom line as far as TA working better or worse, learn to skip across the tightrope or in other words your knowledge expands more than your opponents.
Alot of people ask the wrong trading questions, and think about and approach the market incorrectly. Each person, and trade, and scenario is basically completely different and unique. You have to look at this game as a box puzzle...with all the pieces scattered on a table -- takes patience, and calmness, and vision and collective wisdom to complete it, or a trade. I wish I could be more specific, but sometimes the best advice is vagueness. It's up to you to realize it, and interpret it, and apply it in your own way. Trading requires the use of both your left brain, and right brain. Your analytical, factual, logical side...and your creative, imaginary, artsy, emotional side. Each trade, or chart, is a unique...dynamic ratio of those two. Good trading, and Good luck, and Mazal tov, and May the Farce be with You, -- and High Five`
I am a big fan of classic TA - which is unreliable. It takes a lot more than finding chart patterns to succeed with it. Getting and staying profitable is not about finding some holy grail where you rarely ever lose, that's a novices folly - nobody wants to take losses, it goes against human nature - traders have to learn to take losses. You cant diversify or hedge you way around it unless you happy with single digit pension fund like performance. All this hype on entry signals -good ones come & go - that will never win the game. It's your character, discipline, patience, perseverance, adaptability, self appraisal, guts, etc. The only thing I care about having absolute mastery of is my $ mgmt because that is something we do have full control over. Take care of the losses and the profits take care of themselves.
I agree with others that the TA system should be same on all TFs theoretically. however there is some difference i.e impact cost and execution cost. Because the number of trades is going to be significantly higher these costs distorts the overall system.In other words these cost nullifies a higher proportion of profit generated. So a System which is profitable in higher timeframe can be super flop in lower timeframe. Also if manually executed then there is big risk of distortion as it is difficult to follow the system exactly as it is.If auto executed then this risk goes away. In a higher timeframe a manual trader can execute very closely to the exact system. Apart from that I feel higher timeframe trading is like playing FPS game on bullet time(slow motion) you have so much time to react /adjust/observe where as lower time frame is like playing intense FPS games.
This is a great analogy. Id go further and say that lower time frame you are in the heat of the battle doing hand to hand combat and on the higher time frame you are more of a general who observes and only sends his troops to help with finishing off the losers.