Umm most of my knowledge came from trial and error and just watching the markets anytime I can. For basic knowledge I just used google XD. I have purchased many books and courses but with no use... wish my parents could have that money back. The only thing I can reccomend is just constantly watch the market and take notes. One day watch the ES vs. the NQ. Another day watch the QQQ vs the NASDAQ TICK and so on. Hope that helps!
1) You need to be careful to prove to yourself that this is a valid method and not just based on "data mining." For example, something like picking the presidency based on previous Super Bowl winners may appear promising, but has no actual connection to the results, so it's merely a coincidence. 2) Forward test will prevent you from knowingly or unknowingly modifying your system based on the fact that you have information you won't normally have (future prices). 3) Any system will experience runs, both positive and negative. If your average trade risks more than it profits, a lengthy negative run could (in theory) wipe you out (or at least destroy you psychologically).
1) Somebody else mentioned "forward testing". To look at "old" data can be deceiving. To only look at fresh/new market data each day will force you to be more objective instead of taking comfort from the past. 2) When traders risk more than they expect to make, it can be indicative of perfectionism. Your system has to be "too good" to do well.
============== Good points/shots,sharpshooter; also ,QQQ tends to outperform SPY ,DIA[better %% moves up;better %% moves down] mostly.Actually a bullish bias in a bull market could help you a lot.Several good ways to define a bull market or uptrend. IBD uses a 200 day moving average. Also, a long/ bullish bias in a bear market could hurt you & your fund a lot, for a ''long time''. Residental real estate, [which differs from commercial or farm RE]in my area , more than 200 day downtrend,is still in a downtrend. Marketing times still averages 191+/ days ..... Investors may like to buy low; but your questiion was about trading.
So what your trying to say is that QQQ outperforms SPY and DIA by that it moves up and moves down a higher percentage than them. How would you suggest figuring out if we are in a bull or bear market? Would using a 200 day moving average or a trend be suitable enough? Also, I do agree with what you have said that a bullish bias in a bull market can help me a lot. I'm a short term trader holding positions from 1 day to 5 days so I think what you have said that being in a long position with a bullish bias doesn't really represent myself as a trader. Portfolio diversification is important, but my bullish bias is only for short term.
============ Sharpshooter; a] yes, exactly, most of the time. z]Yes ,on 200dma . I dont use it in a mechanical sense, but daily chart parabolic stop & reverse[also named parabolic time/price] is a handy indicator, for example when silver/SLV goes parabolic, QQQ goes [did go anyway-LOL]QQQ goes parabolic@$120 area . It [parabolic]will still be bullish ; but it snuggs up the stops a bit so you or me doesnt stay bullish/give up gains all the way down to 200dma. So as a clarification, SLV, parabolic stop & reverse area is about $43 more or less , 200 dma is about $25 more or less.Wisdom is profitable to direct. Actually i have a bullish bias on SLV, silver, still; but i respect the short term bears always. ------------------------------------------------------Granddad gave me a silver .50 coin, i shouldnt have sold it, so soon. ...... Even if one doesnt like a parabolic indicator; a short term [or medium term trend trader/ investor like me] got really less bullish when SLV made 7 or 8 higher lows[in a row] on daily candlecharts.No wonder the bears came out.LOL