The deceptive part of TA is it can tell two different stories depend on the price movements , for example, if the price whipsaw and eventually break certain resistance line, they can claim that the institutions/strong hand are accumulate and retails are selling (providing liquidity), if the price failed the resistance, the story will be institutions /strong hand unload their position to retail. Those type of BS statement will go on forever. They claim this is based on "context", but none of them can prove this in real time trades with consistent profitable and statistical proof.
Exactly, well stated! One of the price action people here said that 20 examples constitutes statistical proof. Man, ya can't get anymore naive. Show 3 technical analysts the same chart, and you get 4 opinions. Lol!
I don't use TA, I trade on a purely mathematical base using calculus of probabilities. So your argument doesn't even concern my trading. The advantage of what I do is that 1+1 ALWAYS equals 2. You can never make a story that it is another value. In past I wrote that I use TA because I mistakenly assumed that what I do is part of TA. But because some reasons I misinterpreted the meaning of the word TA: My native language is not english, even my second language isn't. I never studied classically used things for trading. I never learned what S/r, MA, GANN, RSI, MACD.... are because I am not interested in it. It has been proven over and over again that this will never lead to real succes. I don't believe in all the BS you find everywhere on the internet and did not want to polute my thinking with it. Now I am glad I took that road. I am open for things that others will never try because their subconscious prevents then to do so. Their subconscious tells them to use the BS they read. Studying this BS learned the brain to think about a number of things in a certain way. But that training will lead your brain in future always automatically to this same methode, maybe without you noticing it. But this means that it blocks a lot of new and original ways of thinking. I don't have that problem. That explains also for some part why I have so many bashers here. They think in the past. Statements like: there was never somebody in past who could..., or: you pretend to be able to do things nobody ever did..., or: I know nobody who.... I read a lot about how brain works and why it does what it does. A lot more useful than reading books about trading.
This is worth reading. The signal service is no longer offered as far as I can tell so this is not an ad. I subscribed through and i have checked all the trades. M restuls show slight difefrences with a little higher win rate and slightly lower profit factor.
Any book recommendations? Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, fast and slow" covered this topic well I thought.
It was more than 15 years ago, so don't remember much of it any more. I only tried to remember what was written and was important for me. I once read a very good book that explained why the human brain is not fitted for trading, and why it leads many times to self destructive behavour. Also forgot already the name of the writer and the title. I also read a lot about neuro linguistic programming. This was very useful for me, to put in practice what I read elsewhere. Especially to reprogram the behavour of my brain concerning trading. A very simple and useful example was: cut your losses and let your profits run. It looks very simple and easy, but in real trading, for me at last, it was not obvious. At the beginning I made many mistakes like, many times I did not do a trade which appeared afterwards to be a very profitable; I got out too soon of a winning trade because I was afraid to lose that profit again; I refused to take a loss and wanted to wait till recovery; 1 time I wiped out my complete account by not taking a loss. Eventually I took the loss, because my broker closed my position when my account was almost empty. I was too emotional, now I switch off emotions when I trade. Just follow the system, no matter what happens or no matter what others say.
This is the type of respond I expected from nobody as in my previous posts. LOL Now he blame his English that mislead people though that he is a TA trader but indeed he is Quant. LOL. He continue to divert the request to prove what he claim by more BS statements as his did normally. Highly suspicious.
I looked it up: Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity. A technician looks to take the emotion out of investing by applying rules that usually apply to almost every investment that fluctuates in price in a free market. So, although your native language is english and you apparently are an expert in trading, the basic knowledge about trading is still missing. There is: fundamental analysis technical analysis As I am not a fundamentalist, I am a TA'er. Is it not blameS instead of blame ?
Does Probability exist? Yes and no. Too vague a question, as one has to consider environment, length of time, money, experience. ENVIROMENT. Say we decide to go fishing to new lake, not knowing it was loaded up with 10,000 full grown trout day before, we start casting and each cast we hauling in fish till you get the state limit in 30 minutes, I guarantee you be at that lake every chance you get till lake has no more fish but you will keep going anyway. Each time you go the probability based on that first day becomes less and less, but in reality, there are no more fish in the lake. The same with trading if you require high movement like 2008, I know traders who made fortunes in 2008 and yet they are dead break now cause they never learned to trade. LENGTH OF TIME. The greater the timeframe, harder to know direction, but it is a known fact in the past that long term trading produces greatest wealth. Length of duration of a stock comes into play for back testing, when you compare like PFE that started trading in 1942 to a stock that started last week, you can't compare the two with same system and have zero confidence of probability. MONEY. Under capitalized means you able often times unable to come back no matter how decent the past was back tested with high past probabilities. And often times concentrating on the money does nothing but add chances of trading it not as system was tested. EXPERIENCE. When one uses PC to back test by programming whatever patterns you to believe would be profitable, you have to have the experience to be able to manually trade the method as it was tested. Hoping that the past will continue with same odds, but as simple as this sounds, so many "journals" often show it is impossible for many. I believe all people have abilities to trade well with minimal knowledge if they didn't start thinking to much of changing what they designed. The acceptance is the hardest once you have the back tested Trading Plan works in past. The more rules within a Trading Plan, the more reasons to alter while trading.