Probabilities definitely exist. If you go about trading in a truly testable way, and not by being deluded by "just" lookng at charts in the manner of wyckoff heshey or whatever the current name dujour is-- sure you can be succesful. Until the market changes then u need to change. Adaptatation, just like in nature, is the key to long term success. But with thst said, the fund i worked with had over 100 traders ( many from here) who make the same claims u just did-- and had the documentation to prove it-- through the doors. Guess what-- only one survived and his method was non replicatable and nothing to do with price action or even knowing what the current price was.
First of all: I posted some of these predictions already in PM's and even in postings. But I was never good enough, there were always remarks why it was not valid. Even if I would post 100 of them, it would never be accepted as proof, I was probably very very very lucky. I should do this 10 years.... Second: can you post your account over the last 10 years to proof what you say? Because if you don't it means you are just telling BS.
I would counter you by saying if you become succeful after years of trading as a loser it has nothing to do with you--- the market merely changed into a regime favorable to what you are doing. And it will change back. Thats why many traders start out making a killing then start to lose and eventually lose it all. Its bcause the market morphs. The opposite of this are traders who take years to learn a single or multiple tactics then all of a suddn start to win. after years of losing.
I understand your point of view and agree that I probably am one of the exceptions. But if I can, it proves it can be done. That is the point. To me looking at charts cannot work, I use math because if the rule is "value should be 2", then it is objective, clear and easy to follow: it is 2 or it is not. It can not look like 2 and be 1. But I am open minded so maybe charts can work, but for me it does not at all. I have not enough knowledge to judge about charting.
I am not asking for any statements or prolonged stats period. Profitable traders that I know display very similar win/loss ratio, around 50/50.
Don't agree, I started to win because my knowledge improved. I am profitable for over 10 years now. Markets did not stay the same during this period. If it has nothing to do with me, it would mean that the market gave me over 10 years of profit now????? In most cases the markets TAKE profits from traders and present them losses.
Nonsense, Virtue has a win loss ratio of about 90/10, and John Henry had a win loss ratio of about 35/65. Both were or still are profitable. Profit/loss ratio should be know too.
Mr.N Destroys your premise here as u claim uou do this by directional daytrading. http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/day-traders.292059/page-2 Why do you "winners" only exist anonymously on the internet?
I was not going to comment but changed my mind and will do so. The world/country/company/governments/people change.The crooks and misleaders are always in the background and are always there.The market indices are miscalculated.They are heavily weighted towards high cap stocks. They imply that a change in price automatically implies the same price change of all shares.regardless of the total number of shares in the company let alone the number of shares available for trading.They use numbers not percent price change so that the size affect of high price and low price stocks misleads. In all popular indexes very large cap stocks dominate the index and distort results. The fact that we have always done it this way and doesn't make it right any more than the incorrect plotting of moving averages because the financial idiots have always done it so makes it correct.I'm tempted to not insert this rant but what the hell here goes.