I think Surf’s got a GREAT point and I feel he’s right…its all about “how you Feel” and your preconceived bias about the market’s direction …then maybe what happens ( in my case) I use the TA to confirm my already biased point of view…which then gives me the confidence to “Just Do it”…knowing full well the outcome will be close to 50/50 if it’s a loser. When I look at my favorite “patterns” I say to myself “ if this happens then this ‘should happen'…but i never assign a probability to it…or continue to look for an answer...
So, DB. Are u going to provide your market background and why u believe what u believe per ETA's request??? surf
I normally expect a low win rate, like 0.3, that way my mind is ready for consecutive losses, as I know that a time will come that I will catch that right wave, just like in surfing. People should accept that there is no such thing as high win rate, unless you are gunning for peanuts. To catch a big fish requires time and therefore patience.
Q Generally, people would think that it's better to have more winning trades than losing trades but if there is a black swan, a single losing trade would kill. To against this thought, we would like to catch the black swan by normalizing the losing trades. More losing trades mean the system is stable and we can control the (expected) loss. On the other hand, we just let the winning trades float. UQ
we have the hersheyites and wyckoff parrots who claim a much higher win ratio, etc. my experience tells me these folks are not telling the truth or are so deluded they think its true--In fact, market reality is thst what they claim in the way it is claimed is not possible for any practical period of time. I was lookimg forward to one or more of them answering the question poised on this thread like i have. I guess they have left the building after being outed for selling $5 ebooks and massive free marketing campaigns across multiple trading sites. surf
Thanks. Yeah, TA can give you an "outline". But assigning probabilities or thinking the odds are increased is just foolhardy-- surf
Surf, if someone would tell you: the next hour (or the next 2 hours) you should stay short because we will not make a bottom. And supposing these statements are correct for more than 75% of the time. Can you then assign any probability to it or is it still random? I think we would speak about probabilities watching the results as the odds are increased far over 50/50. That is exactly what I do, I program strategies (scenario's), I am not interested in charts. So your statement confirms that probabilities exist.
In my country children go to school at the age of 6-7. In the first class they learn basic mathematics. They learn how to count from 1 to 10, to add and subtract. In the third year they learn to count till 100 and even higher. They also learn to multiply and divide. Before students know very well the basics about math, they are already many years in school. In trading the difficulty is rather exponentially bigger, so you need a lot of time to learn. But most people expect to be successful within a very short time. I meet people who found within 1-3 months a "good tradingsystem". None of them ever made real money. A learning curb is not necessary because they think they are (much) smarter than the average trader. On top of that trading looks very simple at first sight. They have no idea how difficult it is to become a consistent profitable trader. That is already the first big problem: if you don't realize the difficulty of what you try to do, the results will be most of the time disappointing. On top of that most people over estimate their "trading capabilities". Many don't have even the required minimum abilities to achieve their goal. Because nobody is ever tested objectively they continu to think they are smart enough and that the problem lies somewhere else. Or, better for their ego: it is impossible ( so it is not me!). Second remark: When you finished school, did you never asked yourself: why was it so difficult years ago to do math will the same math looks now very easy? The same can happen in trading: If you become successful you will say: how was it possible that I struggled for years even to be just above break even? The answer is very simple: because over the years you gathered the needed knowledge you did not have at the start. Difficult things can become easy, not understandable things can become understandable, unpredictable things can be come predictable. But I write very clearly CAN, so I don't say WILL.
I am nobody, why talk about it, just display this 10 times in a row and we will be able to judge this based on stats. You see many posters just state that they can do this and that with high win rate, yet not anyone seems to be willing to display this ability publicly using real time or advance calls using stops. The ones that do post real time confirm that price oscillations can not be predicted with high accuracy with stops being used.