First of all, let me state that it is not my intention to take a position on who (Marketsurf, or dbphoneix and co.) is right. I just thought that I would pose this for the purpose that everyone could learn from the conversations that have happened in this thread thus far. I have read through the views of DBs and others, learnt about their point of view.Marketsurf has given his/her insights as to his/her style, hence the quote from Marketsurf above. However, I was re-reading the posts made by Surf but I could not answer this question - "So what is Marketsurf interpretation of the market?" To be perfectly factual, most of the posts are made to rebut the assertions made by the other camp (Db and others). This sentence is direct to Marketsurf - Could we have a glimpse of your insights on the market and point out how you are different (disagree), or how you are similar (in agreement) with Db and others? It helps as thereafter we get to see both views, compare and contrast, the individual readers like me in the background, will have their own takeaways from this thread - which is the ultimate objective why game started this... Db or Marketsurf or any others, appreciate your comments or feedback on my post. But pls do not use my post as a springboard to further your endeavors in this thread. I don't mean that. ETA
Thank you for this great post. I am eating lunch ( my one day i can eat what i wish rather than rabbit diet food!). I will answer you upon return --- surf
"We cannot solve problems by using the same kind of thinking that caused the problem. - Einstein" “Here's to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers. The round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently. They're not fond of rules. And they have no respect for the status quo. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them. About the only thing you can't do is ignore them. Because they change things. They push the human race forward. And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do. - Wan” - lol http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...imeframe-traders-take-pa-into-account.291566/
It's probable that your past probability calculation will probably not be correct in the future. As to the law of large numbers it doesn't apply to your probable prediction of the near future. Whatever short length of time you deem to be appropriate as to the near future.Take your guess (however arrived at) and manage it.
Hi, once again, thank you for this very substantive question-- first some background-- I was initially trained in the financial markets by a WD Gann and cycles adherent, This guy turned $10k into several million using these tactics so I was rather intrigued-- used the methods and made money--( this is all ducumented in in the surf report 2002-plus) Joined the MTA and learned lots about TA etc. Thought it was the holy grail--- then i met a certain hedge fund manager who didn't believe in TA and we would argue and chat about it numerous times --- obviously, i would take the TA side--- then I realized that any success I had in the markets was despite using TA, not because of it. That there really wasn't any testable edge to TA and it was basically intuition then stopping out losers and letting winners run guessing on direction by using past price DOES NOT increase the odds that a move will continue or end. If it did it could be quantified, then exploited untill that past price movement no longer has any predictive properties ( if it ever did) . In addition, markets morph to eliminate any edges anyway, so these folks using the same patterns for multiple years and claiming success are not telling the truth. In addition, i have read Wyckoff and it is the most convoluted market material since WD Gann and Nostradamus. ANYTHING can be read into the material and its "right". hence my issue with the preachers. In addition, these same folks use terms like "odds" and "statistics" to provide a phony scientific aura to the material. Not to mention the use of terms like "auction market" which is true but from the point of view of a retail trader knowing this has no relevance whatsoever. But it SOUNDS GOOD and makes sense until put into action hence my zeal in notifying others about the danger of these ideas. I don't believe the markets are random from an epistemological point of view, but I do from our perspective. Price is the result of things happening, it is not the cause of itself. That is the logical error of TA in general. If it was not, one could quantify how many moves or series of moves in one direction will increase the odds of a move or series in the same or changed direction--- Ta is useful for description but has zero value for prediction, Probability exists but it has to be quantafied to exist. It is not quantified by looking at charts therefore chart readers who use this term are misusing it. peace, surf
Q Investor rush to artificial intelligence is real deal http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/019b3702-92a2-11e4-a1fd-00144feabdc0.html Silicon Valley loves a new fad. To judge by the spate of fundraising by start-ups in recent weeks, it has found one in an idea that is more than half a century old: artificial intelligence. “This is the hot place to be at the moment,” says Stephen Purpura, whose own AI company, Context Relevant, has raised more than $44m since it was founded in 2012. By his reckoning, more than 170 start-ups have jumped on the AI bandwagon. The newcomers to AI believe that the technology has finally caught up with the hopes, bringing a heightened level of intelligence to computers. They promise a new way for humans to interact with machines — and for the machines to encroach on the world of humans in unexpected ways. “Technologically, it’s a paradigm shift from putting commands into a box to a time when computers watch you and learn,” says Daniel Nadler, another of the AI hopefuls. His company, Kensho, raised $15m recently in pursuit of an ambitious goal: to train computers to replace expensive white-collar workers such as financial analysts. “We don’t describe what we’re doing as AI — we call it, ‘automating human-intensive knowledge work’,” he says. ... Artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, neural networks: building machines that tackle problems that were previously believed to be solvable only by the human brain has given rise to a range of techniques and jargon, writes Richard Waters. UQ
so what was his POV ? .. why and what gave u the AHA effect ? in terms of what really mathers to be profitable on the markets ? a shit load of money ? fundamentals ? both ? a good sense ? please share your knowledge not your edge.. but u know ?
What gave me the AHA effect was when I compared my carefully "calculated" TA levels with simply going long or going short based on my daily bias -- and the results were the similar in the end. In addition, observing noted technical analysts making forecasts based on randomly generated ( within market parameters) charts made me realize it was very ineffective. Read "practical speculation", "evidence based TA" and "trade like a hedge fund" for more color on my philosophy since these books have been very influential on me. In addition to a clear realization that these claimed consistent "price action only" only exist on the internet. Surf
Yes, 100% that you will eventually will die, and yet insurance companies will still sell you life insurance. And yes, they are the Kings of Math and go with the averages, they have every conceivable idea of make an edge on population that they will make a profit. This just got to show beginning traders if you have a developed plan, you have a chance to make profit in trading if insurance companies are betting one to live longer to collect more.