Does Probability exist?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by game, May 3, 2015.

  1. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    You're assuming that anyone ever did.

    Other than an exaggerated sense of self-importance (witness his self-congratulatory egofest threads), there's nothing to distinguish him from his followers, few though they may be, except for the possibility that some of them are actually nice though easily misled people.
     
    #121     May 9, 2015

  2. The funniest tbing is that i don't include you in the parrotbot teacher category. However you thought i was refering to you--- you are somewhat original actually. surf
     
    #122     May 9, 2015
  3. #123     May 10, 2015
  4. #124     May 10, 2015
  5. some authoritative opinion (Max Planck): ;)

    "As a man who has devoted his whole life to the most clear headed science, to the study of matter, I can tell you as a result of my research about atoms this much: There is no matter as such. All matter originates and exists only by virtue of a force which brings the particle of an atom to vibration and holds this most minute solar system of the atom together. We must assume behind this force the existence of a conscious and intelligent mind. This mind is the matrix of all matter."
     
    #125     May 10, 2015
    JTrades and marketsurfer like this.
  6. Redneck

    Redneck

    Does Probability exist?

    Yes

    One example - it how insurance companies set premiums for the various age groups

    But I suspect this question geared more toward trading

    Sooooo......

    ===============

    As it utmost important to get / remain on the side of the mkt

    So to is it important to get / remain on the side of probability


    And as the mkt never static..., neither are the probabilities


    ============================

    Uncertainty & evolution - to most - are a pure D bitch - LOL

    RN
     
    #126     May 10, 2015
  7. I tend to agree with this-- its the only thing that makes sense.
     
    #127     May 10, 2015
  8. As a clear headed scientist : are you saying that in a certain way you believe in God ? This God existing before any human being existed, and obviously not man made?
     
    #128     May 10, 2015
  9. A very very long time ago when I was still studying, we had to solve the next question: can you proof mathematically that the results of every draw of any lottery is honest? Or in other words that the figures that come out are random and not manipulated?

    As I said it was a very very long time ago. But I still remember that we were able to calculate with (I think) 96% certainty that the lottery was honest and the draws were random.

    To me this means that if the results from trading would be analyzed it would be possible too to calculate if these results are random or not? If the result would be that they are not random it would mean that probability exists.

    If according to famous scientist probability does not exist, this would put a part of the world upside down, wouldn't it?

    Let's take a hypothetical example. Hypothetical means that we assume that this hypothesis happened, so we will not discuss if this is possible or not. So if the following would happen what would be the conclusion?
    • Serie of 1000 trades.
    • Winning trades: 70%
    • Losing trades: 30%
    • Average profit per winning trade: 6 points
    • Average loss per losing trade: 1.5 points
    Total: 700 trades * 6 points - 300 trades * 1.5 points
    So total would be: 4200 points profit and 450 points losses.
    In other words: 10.71% of the profits will be given back in losing trades.

    Without the existence of probability, how would be the distribution of profits and losses? And what would be the ratio between winning and losing trades?
     
    #129     May 10, 2015
  10. romik

    romik

    The problem - probability is always 50% or less. Solution - reward has to be a multiple of average risk. The end.
     
    #130     May 10, 2015