on a *short-term* basis? yeah, gold needs a pullback. a bunch of days straight up always has some form of stalling - either pullback in price, or a consolidation (in price) taking some time. for longer term? man, it's a beautiful long term setup. disclosure: long GLD for long-term accounts. will buy more if the pullbacks aren't deep.
My gut desperately wants to short gold. I finally took the short side at 1173.05 but chickened out when it went downto 1171. It so hard to buy gold at its record high. I dont mind buying the pullbacks but something psychological gets inthe way when it makes new highs and i guess i just dont want to be the guy that ended up buying gold at the highest price in the history of mankind.
There's a big 1200 expiry that rolls off tomorrow at 930 GMT from what I gather. I'd not short this at all, but if you absolutely must, you might want to think about doing it around that time.
I do not know how to play options expiration in gold, but here is a brief story that addresses your point: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-set-hit-1200-within-24-hours
I'm sure gold will bounce around for quite some time, and even "correct" eventually short term. But long term - I'm still bullish. And I'll say it again: It's a fucking meltdown. The rules of the past 30 years do not apply. It's a REAL CRISIS now. Explain to me in a rational way how the USA will service the interest payments on its debt, continue to pay for the world's largest military, support the banking sector to the tune of trillions, and make sure the elderly have health care and a monthly check. Gold is the one thing you don't have to trade, the one investment you can let ride for years. Short term trading this is very risky.
This is my logic as well. The market doesn't let this many people be right for this much money for this long. IMO, gold will be unraveling shortly. And what better day than today? Dow is failing 10,500... let it all come down...
I'm extremely BULLISH on gold, but as the trade becomes more overcrowded its looking more like the beginning of a small bubble, I have no position in gold at the moment, just like any trade that moves in one direction for too long it always becomes overcrowded and eventually ends with a correction. This trade is eventually going to break, when it does of course it wont be pretty. Oil went from $147 to $30, at the time it was trading at an even $100 if someone said it was going to run 50% higher you would have thought hmmmmm.... but to anyone saying oil was going to drop over $100 a barrel to $30 after it peaked would be thought of as a complete fool. If anyone wants to play the short side of Gold I would recommend GLL currently trading at $9.23 If you want to short Silver ZSL currently trading at $3.96