In my second month trading, I remember I put the gold futures on my Anvil LII and sat there watching how GLD moved with the last-trade of the gold front month futures contract, I was counting in my head the difference in the price and when it got really far away, my theory was that it would revert quickly - it looked like GLD was a little slow, even, then I remember seeing a HUGE divergence and I bought 300 shares (I was still trading 100 shares back then, a total newbie) of GLD... lol, what happened was the gold futures contract I was watching was pit traded and the pit closed, so the price stopped changing - I nonetheless thought there was some absurd huge arbitrage opportunity. Somehow I made a few bucks on the trade anyway.
you can still find some "arb" from time to time ( i.e this am the opening GLD trades were almost $1.00 higher than the theoretical value of GLD ) * note I sold some and locked in a profit buy buying futures ... however I was not able to continue to sell anymore and lost some money chasing futures a few $ higher ) < cannot complain I am having a ( so far knock on wood ) a great week and a great yr >
Ok so sounds like they move pretty closely similar to uso and oil. Thanks I closed out my entire uso short position for a nice chunk of change as it's getting close to the 200MA. Looking to make a shorter term play on gold now. The drop so far has been dramatic from a technical standpoint.