Does Fleckenstein have any credibility?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by formikatrading, Jan 18, 2004.

  1. I'm curious about Bill Fleckenstein and Fleckenstein Capital. You see his columns on MSN and apparently he now has is own web site. While he always makes "convincing" arguments about the market, it seems he is more interested in being right than making money -- in other words, he would rather argue why the market is overvalued, . . . yada, yada, yada. He seems to be one of those perma-bears.

    Anyone have any other thoughts on him?
  2. I read him once in a while for entertainmaint.
  3. Babak


    Dude! You certainly don't know the guy!

    He has been right on the money on the gold/silver bull market. And what people don't know is that he was wildly bullish on the semis (when they were actually cheap!).

    He is the real deal.

    And the chicks dig his mullet.
  4. I must be reading some other guy then. He has been bashing semis and Intel in particular as dead fish for last 1 1/2 year.
  5. Banjo


    He is a perma bear and one day he will be right, but not today. There are quite sane, compelling arguments made be credible people about mkt direction completely boxing the compass. The world has become a much tighter package allowing $ to instantly shift hugely into new directions via technology on the slightest information flow. It's impossible to tell which butterfly's flapping of the wings of the most exotic derivitives is going to affect what or where. If there is a key, a logic chain, to help explain the movement it's the age old greed/fear drivers. The mkt is an emotional animal always on it's way to satisfy the greed or fear of the players. It is not a mathmatically correct rendition of a formula that the Flecks of the game have decided on. The only time they are correct is when it is passing thru the mean they have created with their formulas based on their perceptions of an acceptable realty. Human emotions are the drivers not calculators.
  6. Fleck is the real deal. He has made me more money than anyone else alive with the possible exception of Marc Faber.

    He bashes semis, but they are nutty expensive.

    Fleck does like to be right, and he usually is. I think he is a bit more conservative than most, so he doesn't like to loose money and take risks. There is nothing wrong with that.
  7. RJW39


    i second that, Fleckenstein nailed this latest move is silver.
    he has also been long AMD from 8 ?? ( i am guessing at price)
    he definately has a contrairan view,
    but it helps to have both sides of an argument!
  8. Mvic


    but doesn't short until he sees a real change in trend. Ranting that the market is at crazy valuations and going heavily short are two distinct things. He does the first but exercises real patience and discipline with regard to the second.
  9. I'd be a lot richer if I had listened to him and been more patient on shorting this market.

    I really banged my head against the wall this year shorting SMH, buying SMH puts and selling naked SPX calls.

    .... a lot richer.

    But he made it back many times over with his gold/silver calls. I had been short about 15,000 AMD for a few months when he bought. I don't think anyone be fighting fleck. I covered MOO the next morning. He really saved my ass on that one. Better to loose like $20,000 than be down like 10 pts now.

    He is very patient. Holds a few strong positions and that's it. Mostly sits there waiting for the easy money while he trys to figure out what's happening and why.
  10. Babak


    Holy crap...can I ever ditto that!
    #10     Jan 19, 2004