Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Vincent S. Ashmore, Nov 25, 2015.
A flip of coin works also. So does head lump reading.
You can translate Chinese to any language on earth.
And then, you can translate it back.
And you can do this again and again and again.
And aside from some "slippage" of vocabulary or tenses and such, the same story will be repeatedly told.
So you see the problem with your analogy?
You can't do that (translate back and forth, expecting same/similar outcomes)
with Mr. Elliot's waves.
You can't *predict*, but only *diagnose* on dead, already-happened, data:
To put it *very* simply: to have predictive utility, a method must first be, predictive.
The title of the thread is correct: it is a theory..., not a trading method and that applies to any type of market analysis.
One has to create the trading method oneself ! And while doing that, one may utilize the theory (including Eliot's) to the extend that one thinks is useful.
Looking for the books explaining the working method someone created based on Eliot ways (or any analysis) - good luck with that.
Isn’t one the telling of a story in the past and the other more of a telling of an unfolding story in the present?
The present always contains multiple possibilities of what the future might bring.
Meteorologists appear to forecast based on trends of what is happening in the present extending into the future. Meteorologists frequently get it wrong but does it discount the method’s utility?
You missed my point: "If one (you) can't do it (i.e. speak Chinese, trade profitably), it doesn't mean nobody can (speak Chinese, trade profitably)".
We all look at the same data (Chinese characters, price data), but we can't see what others see, even when we're given hints. If you can't do it, it doesn't mean others can't do it. But, be sure that if you think it can't be done, you won't be able to do it. Keep an open mind!
The whole idea isn't to predict, but to look at what happened until this moment, to analyze it, gauge the market breath at the moment, and act accordingly. Then don't get stuck with your past assessments; just keep reassessing and acting accordingly.
Elliott Wave Theory, and others help you make that assessment. They give you an edge if you understand what they are (including their limitations), and what they tell you.
Elliot's method is interpolation; prediction depends on extrapolation.
Elliot's Wave Theory works for Elliot. -- you should develop your own theory, and call it McGinnis' Theory.
Too many people look directly at someone else for their instant overnight gold mine market success riches,
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Those patterns and theories are all sooo yesterday.
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