I use Dennis's original method which is much more discretionary and time consuming than the rather simplistic time count breakouts (btw not a diss on Donchian). I reckon it was far easier for Dennis and Eckhardt to both code and teach the fairly pedestrian 20 and 40 day breakouts
His trend following book is not really about the system. Its just about trend following in general. The book The Complete Turtle Trader is a STORY about the Turtles, not a strategy book.
Excuse me? The webpage referenced was about The Turtles, a rock band. We are talking about The Turtles, equities/futures traders.
The last i hear from him(yes i did) he was humping a card counting investment...this was a few years ago cheers john
Turtle trading is not about an edge. it's about a style of trading that it's success is based primarily on discipline. It's about human nature. Forget about breakouts. Just open a random position. If you are disciplined enough to follow the trend (if there is one or when it developes) or to take small loses until you get a trend you can make a lot of money. Reality is, very few can do it. I must correct myself: very very few can do it.
intradaybill Registered: Feb 2008 Posts: 491 06-16-09 08:39 PM Turtle trading is not about an edge. it's about a style of trading that it's success is based primarily on discipline. It's about human nature. Forget about breakouts. Just open a random position. If you are disciplined enough to follow the trend (if there is one or when it developes) or to take small loses until you get a trend you can make a lot of money. Reality is, very few can do it. I must correct myself: very very few can do it. .......................................END................................................ DUHH!!!!!! Excuse me. If what you described on how to get on a trend is NOT breakout trading please explain how else you would do it. To open as you said "a random" position without good setups sounds like flipping a coin in order to CATCH a trend. There are better ways to describe breakout trading besides fishing for one .
I disagree that "DISCIPLINE" is the answer to making money. Discipline is about "NOT" losing money. Discipline is not part of the plan to make money, it is what is used to CONTROL yourself from YOU. You are and always will be your own worst enemy. Sure you use discipline to exit trades when you were flat wrong, thats a given. How can discipline increase your odds in a game of chance? A loser is a loser and a winner is a winner. Correct? Discipline is my world is "AFTER" you are filled, not BEFORE. Some will say discipline as they define it in trading means not to overtrade, size matters, yada, yada, yada but that is incorrect. That stuff is about money management etc. Risk management and money management are not the same. The days MISSION is to have a battle plan to attack the mkt and gain what you can by implementing your well honed tactics based on the odds those tactics (signals) have shown in prior mkt conditions. Lets just call it an "INTERNALIZED" battle plan of attack. Discipline is NOT a plan of attack, discipline is a plan of exiting the battlefield, you use discipline to exit when your tactics have pinged the gray matter between the ears that you have reached the profit potential of that individual skirmish. Thats also the same discipline you use to exit a losing battle. I would never go into a battle on a hope and a prayer (there are no trading gods and god does not bless trades). Entering a battle with just an exit plan is admitting you are NOT ready to do battle in the real world. Discipline is NOT the winning strategy you seek. PS: more wins over losses only counts in coin flipping, NOT in a game of probability with overhead costs.