Does anyone really think the Fed will cut 50 basis points in July?

That seems unrealistic. That's never been the Fed MO. I think Greenspan did that once?

 

With FED you can never be certain. They are targeting inflation and full employment. I dont think that issue is currently so much in the US, but I see it more in the external pressures. If we look solely CPI, I find no reason for change rates. But, nobody from FED will consult me on this topic