My problem is the plan. I am okay with taking losses. But I don't want to trade w/o a plan. Lost enough by switching method trade by trade. Got to "automate" something up to Oct16. Whatever it is. To take his losses isn't the cornerstone but a f*cking plan is. No Holy Grail but recognize when the odds are favorable. This is the edge ... To beat the fairness of the game. That's were I am lost. No real consistency yet. I got drafts, pieces. But nothing solid yet.
By "Odds are favorable" I mean : If expected gain > 2 times the max loss, Then the odds of the setup have to be > 33%. This is were I am. For the worst or the best. Trying to feel the odds. To pull ... Or not to pull the trigger. One MUST speculate. Up to now I've been more trading with Guts, What I want is to automate the process till' Oct16. Otherwise I bullshit once on the battlefield. I make a carnage.
Ok, that is actually the easy bit, once you know, of course. Time to take a step back. What market - note market, as in one market, not 2 or 4 - have you decided to trade, why that specific market, and how many hours per day can you dedicate to trading, with no distractions, or any other person to deal with? J_S
I am sorry J_S but I don't see why these things matter to you =P No worry about that. ES only. I have my reason. 2h from Open & let's see.
Btw, you are of course correct - if all you do is take small losses, then you might last a bit longer, but you will eventually bleed dry. You must know the best times to trade - in relation to risk versus reward, and the best instrument to trade at that moment. No rocket science - excel can do all the hard work for you ( if trading various US stocks ), so all you need do is act, and react, when and as required. It then, just becomes a matter of TIME. If you can grasp this concept, and use excel, then you can show your child how to trade - metaphorically speaking of course. J_S
You are again correct KP - they do not matter to me, one little bit - but if you are trying to automate daytrading the ES, then, I now predict, here and now, that you will not succeed - not being smart or cynical, just stating what I believe to be true based on my trading experience with the eminis. It is extremely hard to even daytrade the ES, let alone try and automate it - it is the home of the real professionals - walk the path with extreme care, as a cat can pass by twice, at any time! J_S
I've been correct about trees, But now I am wrong about the forest ! Thanks J_S. I'll stop & think about it next time on my knees.
No one knows best but yourself - do not mind me or anyone else - but, do beware idiots and fools who talk big, and show not one bit of proof. You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes to work out that things just do not add up! Of course you can make lots of money daytrading the ES, but the reality is that it is much easier lose money than make loads of it. To beat the algo traders, you need to take a step back, and let TIME be your best friend. 2 bars back is a very good start - but that is all it is, a start, for, to perfect your timing - which is ultimately your success or failure - there are a few other factors that you need to monitor and incorporate into your trading, and, they are in no way related to squiggly lines on a chart, they are to do with the here and now - TMIT -The Moment In Time! If I can do it, anyone can - and I can do it - no big head, hey look at me - just a fact - have posted numerous trades on NQ - which can be even harder than the ES to daytrade! J_S
No worry. I am not the kind to believe. Once I thought it'd come back. I averaged down. It didn't. I don't believe anymore. Livermore called the TMIT, The Psychological Time. I don't care if things add up or not. It's easy to build up a coherent story. Anyway ... If it can't be tested ... Flush it. If it can be tested. Test it for yourself and see. Easier to lose. That's true. But it's not hard written. That's just because we bullshit more than what we ought to. Thx J_S