Does anyone else here look for stocks where insiders are buying?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by thriftybob, Mar 20, 2007.

  1. dinoman

    dinoman

    Ah no, this site is for shit and giggles at best!
     
    #11     Mar 24, 2007
  2. The link was an attempt at going to www.gsr.com and then going to Financial filings and SEC filings under investment info info. I must have screwed up copying the link somehow.

    http://www.gsr.com/Investment/Financial_Information/SEC_Filings/

    That's a list of all the filings rather than link to the

    Yahoo insider info screens are usually a couple days late posting. To really get in at a price near what the insider paid usually you have to be buying at the open or pullback the next day, LOL, unless the stock STILL is going down (if it was). I've had some of those, but i think the bigger the buys, the more impressive they are.
     
    #12     Mar 24, 2007
  3. As for that other site, I don't know their system. I just look there for "opportunities"
     
    #13     Mar 24, 2007
  4. KenL

    KenL

    A director at BSC just bought a boat load few days ago at $147 and $150, err a couple of boat loads actually. The stock is off it's high of 172. If it breaks 155 on good volume, I'm in.
    Here's the site I use http://www.secform4.com/
     
    #14     Mar 24, 2007
  5. Recent stock purchase by the CEO of Petrohawk Energy (HK).

    This follows a recent purchase by Petrohawk of another company, so this guy is clearly a "player".
     
    #15     Mar 24, 2007
  6. fzt75

    fzt75

    Interesting information, thanks.

    Can u guys know in real time when an insider is buying ?
     
    #16     Mar 24, 2007
  7. Large insider trades are reported within 2 business days. Vickers Stock Research aggregates all insider transactions in real time. (http://www.vickers-stock.com) Otherwise, just check the WSJ daily.

    The biggest challenge with following insider trades is filtering transactions with no information. e.g., are larger trades of greater probability weighting? Does the insider's corporate position make a difference? Is selling of the same importance as buying? etc... I can explain more if anyone is interested.

    One thing to consider about selling is that it's always in the open market. The insider may have acquired shares from stock options or non-open market buying.

    Overall, I've found that stocks with active insider buying will outperform stocks with active insider selling. You could calculate buys minus sells in 1 month and use that as a signal to buy or sell the stock.
     
    #17     Mar 25, 2007
  8. Insider selling is less well correlated to stock performance than insider buying.

    The reason is that insider buying is always because the insider thinks the stock is going up. Why would they want to lose money ? They could be wrong, but the theory is that they have "insider knowledge" and thus insider buying is the only "tip" that you can legally obtain.

    HOWEVER, insider selling could be due to insiders knowing bad things are happening, BUT it is more often due to insiders wanting cash.

    This most often occurs in cases where insiders have far more assets in stock than they will ever receive in pay. A good example is EchoStar, where one of the founders has been continually selling stock - undoubtedly to buy houses, cars and other luxury items - or perhaps simply to diversify. During this insider selling period, the stock has continually gone up and is currently near a 52 week high.
     
    #18     Mar 25, 2007
  9. ...or the buying could be involuntary. e.g., a new member of management may be required to purchase shares to align their personal incentives with those of the stockholders.

    Insider selling will always be larger than buying because many shares were acquired in a non-open market.

    Insiders with information don't make all of their trades right away, either. It's typically split over several months to minimize price impact and investor reaction. Evidence suggests 20,000-100,000 share transactions have the highest predictability.

    The probability of selling by "top executives" increases to about 69% if the stock has gained >10% in the last 6 months. If the stock has lost 10%, the probability of selling is about 52%. Each insider has a different level of predictability and should be weighted accordingly.

    My system calculates deviations from normal selling and buying patterns across individual stocks and entire sectors to make trading recommendations. It also normalizes short interest, put/call sizes, etc by mean volume.
     
    #19     Mar 25, 2007
  10. Not a smart strategy. Insiders like all humans are fallable
     
    #20     Mar 25, 2007