So everybody is calling oil dead again, ok it will drift back towards the 45-48 range, stay there for a few months, then it will roar back again. Opec has a date in September, if they dont show growth in production in september, everybody will call the saudi production limit truth. so oil down or up ;D
I think OPEC will CUT production during the second half of the year. Especially if oil continues to decline. This could fuel another rally. Meantime demand will rise, but how elastic is to the price is I leave that to the market.
If we nuke Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and take their oilfields, yes. Or we find a really cheap alternate fuel source
july contract is trading up due to the preperation for hurricane season. u will usually see prices go up around july/august.
I do not think it will hit new highs any time soon, but I suspect supply issues and strife in the Middle East are not going to go away. For that reason I am considering entering XLE long again, it did well today, but I think it has to stay above $40 to be for sure.