Does any one think Nat Gas is makiing a base?

Does any one think Nat Gas is making a base for a Run into winter?

piazzi

 

Its possible. Nat Gas seasonally makes a short term low hear at the end of Sept.

However, Nat gas invetories have been expanding as of late. High nat gas prices this summer have allowed producers to sell into this summers run up. Colder than normal fall weather will support this market into winter

 

I think we may have to wait out the Fall for any significant rally in Nat Gas. Except, if hurricane intervenes.

I would consider longs in the lower 7 price range; would not short with between 7 and 8.

 

I also think the 7 area should hold, or I will run. and agree that shorting may not be prudent here. Cot data shows massive long positions by commercials and massive short positions by large specultators, it will be interesting to see how that will resolve

piazzi

 

Yes. I dipped my toe last week and will continue to add to the position, expecting a decent rally in the coming months. Historically there is always a rally in either the 4th quarter or early in the 1st. Additionally, from a long term perspective nat gas is part of the alt. energy story.

 

same with me, I have a position and am not shy of adding on selloffs, 7 area should hold, though, otherwise, I may lose confidence

piazzi

 

yeah strangely as of late (last two weeks) natty has been very calm, which is weird for this market. Something is going on.

 

a really nice down day, this should bring some buyers up

 

Fundamentals are still bearish as evidenced from the variances from the weekly surveys. We have had 1 bullish data point over the last several weeks (last week). You still need to witness some more supply destruction and perhaps these prices will contribute.
The CFTC COT report illustrates long liquidation over the last few months, likely a function of funds covering margins for other non performing assets.
We do have the seasonal factors working for a long position, however, these factors may be mitigated by dollar strength (it's not inflationary if you print $700b and throw it into a hole), and a lower short interest.
At the very least we will need confirmation on supplies over the next 2 data points to re-establish a bullish scenario.

 

yeah there has just been too much bearish news, huge huge builds. I don't pay much attention to energy COT, ICE and the like fuck it up. Natty has held the 7.00 area well so far we shall see if it does again.