The pandemic is just the catalyst. Eventually the stock market getx overbought, the economy gets overbought. And the business cycle turns down. At the top it always looks like nothing can crash the market or the economy. But something always turns up that does.
Oh ... I thought an anticipated collapse of corporate earnings caused by an exogenous (black swan) event, like nothing ever seen during a normal business cycle, was the catalyst. What was I thinking ?
No. Market was somewhat overbought ... but economic metrics were not falling off ... until the black swan.
Average length of an economic expansion in the US is 40 or 50 months, this one was over 120 months. A recession was inevitable at some point. If it wasn't this year then something would have turned up in the next couple of years to burst the bubble.