I don't see what it is hard to understand when I say: "There is only one single rule: a minimum or a maximum on projection line and their duals are important turning points for the market. " or you don't know what is a maximum or a minimum on a curve : I don't think it requires to be a genious but just have first degree level at college if not less illustration for yesterday I posted in Walther's checking turning point at 11:55 see comment there http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=17492&perpage=6&pagenumber=4 <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=254967>
How clever you are depend on whether you put the lows in before or after they happens. In other words are your highs and lows pre dictions or post dictions ? Of course you aren't reading my posts anymore so I guess we will never know. freealways
And now for the duality you think it's just for abstract fun concept ? Well it solves a problem many people have : estimating a target . So for the same example of yesterday I added the duals of the blue points and I defined duals in my guide in 2 sentences : "Each point on a line has a counterpart on the other line we called a dual. The dual of a projection point is a base point and vice versa." <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=255249>
The concept has been to check or uncheck the validity of technical analysis (TA). The real fundation came from one of Dow Theory (DT) used rather by speculators and float analysis used rather by investors. The link between the two have never been made and both are more qualitative than quantitative. Harry, what do you mean by term "float analysis"? If, according to you, it is something "investors" use, then I'm assuming you're not talking about the float analysis that Steve Woods came up with? Since it (Woods) is rather new, and by claiming it's something "investors" do, I would imagine the technique (float analysis) has a far longer history than that; especially as it's half of what you chose to base your Unified Theory on. (Or, rather, create a unified theory of: Dow & Float)
Anyone interested in making projections as to tops and bottoms would be wise to buy a book by Skarew which goes into details about a very such method which he calls The Rule of Seven. In essence one takes the difference between a significant low and a subsequent significant high and multiplies this difference by respectively 1.4, 1.75, 2.33 and 3.5. These figures were arrived at by dividing seven by respectively 5,4,3 and 2. Or, putting it another way, multiply the difference by 7/5 , 7/4, 7/3 and 7/2. Hence he calls it 'The Rule of Seven'. The outcome is thence added to the subsequent next significant low to provide in turn a projection of the subsequent significant high. The same kind of method is applied to project lows. I did test these projections extensively and was surprised to see how often there was indeed either resistance (or support) or a top (or bottom) at the projected prices. The book contains several interesting ideas but may be a bit hard to get but it is definitely worth going to a bit of trouble locating it. It isn't an expensive book. The title is 'Techniques of a Professional Commodity Chart Analyst. The publishers are Commodity Research Bureau, Inc., New York. freealways
Float analysis ? There is nothing new under the sun as the saying goes. There have been several people who have studied and written about the relationship between price and volume. For example Richard W. Arms wrote a book titled 'Volume cycles in the stockmarket'. He suggests to build volume in a candlestick type bar (without the tails) with the width of the body representing the volume. In essence he is saying that a similar volume in a previous move will be dissipated during a subsequent consolidation area. If thence there is a move of unusual proportions out of the consolidation area it is likely to be the start of a new move. I believe (though I don't know for certain) that Metastock software incorporates this type of candlestick-like bars. I use SuperCharts software but am using Insight Trader software specifically for this particular feature. Bernard Chapman, an Australian, who wrote Insight Trader software is using what he calls Equivolume bars (with the tails showing) (not quite exactly like Richard Arms' method in its calculations of the volume but good enough. Some very good signals are obtained using such bars which incorporate volume. The best feature is that one would be doing something which most people don't. Anyone interested in this concept really ought to buy the book (highly recommended). freealways Nevertheless, Cycle Analysis is my favourite signal.
Float analysis comes from the term float and investors didn't wait for Steve Woods to know the importance of float analysis . When I was beginning to be interested in Stock Market it was during the 1987 crash, at that time I only knew about investing not trading and I was reading investors books that was at least 10 or 20 years old already so I dare say that it should be rather old . So float analysis is not an exclusivity of steve woods, it is perhaps that he renew the thing as using it in trading rather than in investing (because basically float analysis used by investors like all their tools not very sophisticated it's one of their ratios that's all ) . As for myself my quantification model is very far from being as simplistic as float analysis from investors: it's not just ratios but very sophisticated equations in fact it requires so very long calculus time that's why at the moment I only calculate a few indices. But I intend to extend to the whole market when it will be possible. In conclusion I use the term float analysis in a very general sense that is to say concept and not specific technique because as for techniques it will vary hugely from one person to another. For sure my "float analysis" has nothing to really ressemble one of steve Woods. In fact when I obtained the results of the modelisation it was pure abstraction I didn't know what's the link with real world. It's like a physician who discover something like the Shrödinger equation what's on earth do you link that to reality ? You use the equations for calculation but as for interpretation it's really abstract an atom which is a probablity wave does it exist or not is even this probability the "true" reality or just an inadequate expression ? Some genious like Tesla says for example that at the end everything is particle not fuzzy probability . So if you ask me exactly the concrete meaning of my abstracted model I would have the same difficulty: what I know is that the calculation is very precise much more precise than traditional TA so that for even for scalping it's a huge advantage because you can anticipate and avoid slippage.
I miswrote the name of the author of the book titled 'Techniques of a professional commodity chart analyst'. His name is Arthur Sklarew. freealways
freealways remember you are on my ignorelist . Perhaps I will deliver you from your prison in one month .
I don't know if I answered your question so I will give another answer. Perhaps you already know because it is the basic for big investors to control a stock. Like in economy you control something when you have ... the monopole. And how do you have the monopole ? When you take all the float of a stock in a market, that is to say take it from the little hands. When you have the control you do what you want with the price if it is your interest . That's why traditional TA look at volume for confirmation it is when the float is in the hand of the controller(s) that things become interesting.