Its not just alpha, it's all of the above. If you have a bunch of random $10K accounts making high risk, high reward directional bets one is going to put up spectacular returns. That has zero correlation with the manager of that random account being able to consistently deliver alpha with minimal drawdown (institutional money's thoughts, although I share them) over long periods of time (a year isn't a long period of time).
The thing I can't get is that he has a lot of youtube videos and posts what he claims are actual statements showing that he makes crazy returns. His strategies are very simplified verticals/covered calls/diagonals using moving avg and keltner channels. However, I can't find anyone who has had a positive (profitable) experience with his site. The only thing I can think is that maybe his statements are showing closed positions and he just rolls the losers out and out and is sitting on some big deferred losses (aka Karen Supertrader style)? I wish it was as easy as he presents it, just sell those options and collect the checks!
Yeah, maybe he also uses a lot of leverage and has big gains in some periods (moderately bullish, no big drawdowns?) and highlights those. It's also possible he's made decent returns in some years that were favorable to his strategies (thus the World Cup results). What's really needed is a complete 10+ year track record audited by a 3rd party. But don't hold your breath on that.
Or the oldest trick in the book, you open up 2 accounts with opposite strategies. One does great and the other does the opposite. You just show us the one that did great.
According to post #13 in this thread, that won't work at World Cup. All performance is aggregated. That's why my conclusion (his strategies do quite well in some periods, and that's what he highlights) is more likely.
I don't think the youtube videos referenced in the post I was replying to were subject to such scrutiny.
Just prior to my first encounter with the various publications of Hughes, I was already in the light about a few small components of his detailed method's for capturing trending stocks for large multiples of derivatives trading based returns. I do not know exactly how much anybody else knows, but the entire system delivered by Hughes' publications, services, research reports, and videos/webinars are in fact relaying the most powerful form of derivative trading I presently know of. I accidentally discovered this "in plain sight" power play by messing around with a watch list one day; the following day saw the item I had prepared into that watchlist had nearly a 90% profit reading which had accumulated literally overnight. And I have been obsessed with this specific mechanism ever since (which is how I came across Hughes' work.) Upon immediate and almost OCD (Obsessive Compulsive d/o) devotion to learning more about the "boundaries" of the potentials of this particular derivative's method, I established a 7 week extensive simulated reproduction of this power derivatives play; my compounded total overall return (on simulation not real life though) of nearly 350% or more (it's actually really painstaking keeping dibs on all those trades; it's not easy to accurately maintain records when there are dozens and dozens of trades, many up triple digits, some up double digits, some down more than I should have allowed.) I started seeing returns that I never even heard of before; with my personal record being a 488.82% return in about 15 hours (one night, and one morning). Indeed, these power derivative plays will produce a rolling profit just as fast as it will potentially erase you account's value. However those were methodologies that I had just been trading on simulation due to not knowing hardly anything more about it. Chuck Hughes' publications, reports, books, videos, webinars; and the services provided revealed to me as means of achieving a much more significantly safer means of utilizing the power derivative play, as well as contingency plans, stopping rules, technical study aids, and quite and extensive amount more information for allowing the reader to maintain the best chances of maintaining gains, without those potentially lightning paced losses. In full sincerity, Hughes' work will make people wealthy. Even lower and middle class individuals can become substantially wealthy providing they understand enough of the core principles to be able to maintain capital preservation, while focusing as low risk of an applied power play methodology as possible to generate the growth on that capital; multi hundred percent returns measured in sometimes hours, or short few days may occur frequently. I am definitely a big fan of Chuck Hughes, and will be continuing to follow his work for a while....
I'm not sure what to make of it, but the person sure has a strange and stilted writing style: "I do not know exactly how much anybody else knows, but the entire system delivered by Hughes' publications, services, research reports, and videos/webinars are in fact relaying the most powerful form of derivative trading I presently know of." It doesn't sound sincere, but it doesn't sound like a typical shill or salesman either.