Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? Is it gambling or statistical logic? How many of you can give the answer? What probabilities theorem is applied here?
How many of you can give the answer? What probabilities theorem is applied here? ############################## Quite simple -Objectie ,means and motiv Which of company make TV gambling show or some equal (answer 10 questions in row make 100 000$) Objective of the company - TV spectators over 5 mln Is winning under this conditions possible -yes Company interess TV spectators quantities ,this is selled to adv . for some 300 000 $ per 1 minut For that company is ready to pay price for participants .
Do I want to the car or the goat? ) just kidding) You will have to choose door 2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
A woman came to tell me the story after she watched the Black Jack film and ask why the answer is 66% rather than 50%. I told her because you open the door twice. And if they give you the chance to open the door 3 times then you will surely get the car (100% or 3/3), with one time you get 33% chance, zero time you get nothing. I also told her that the problem is not complicated, it just some morons have managed it to be complicated in order to make themselves look "smart" because they can understand it and proudly believe that others don't. Edited: Of course, I also got the wrong answer at the first time and she then told me the right answer but mentioning that she still didn't understand why that answer. So after that explanation she was happy and left.
from the article: "no other statistical puzzle comes so close to fooling all the people all the time" interesting it sounds a lot like trading.
Of course, it's the Bayes' theorem. That is the clue how one can judge whether there is a bias in the coin or not. The host of this show is the "biased" coin. In trading the information that sometimes is 'Imprinted" in the price, volume, option chains etc. gives you the insight to use the Bayes' theorem to you advantage (statistical logic) and stay away from gambling.
I think I get it. Assuming that the game is a betting game, and the car is worth $100,000, and you have to bet $40,000 to play the game. The chances of picking the correct door is 1/3. You do not have an advantage. Playing will be gambling. But assume the host (who knows where the car is) opens a door with a goat now you have an advantage and it is not gambling on a long run. To trade you need to find this type of information in the price/volume MP what ever and create an edge.