Do You Think The Subprime Crisis is Over?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by 1flyfisher, Mar 10, 2008.

  1. :D :D :D :D

    Do you think the markets will Rally off a bottom any time soon into a sustainable Bull Trend?

    I don't.
    I see further subprime issues weighing on the markets for months to come.
    As I see it this will place further pressures on the overall markets.
    Many more financials will have to come clean with writeoffs before this market can even think about putting in a bottom and sustaining an upward trend.

    The economy is teetering on recession. Actually we have been in recession but the data is lagging for the markets. The markets are trying to figure out how deep and how long this recession will play out. The markets have priced in a recession but the markets haven't priced in how long and how deep this recession will be. Watch out below!

    Oil at $108 a barrel, massive foreclosures to come, food and energy inflation playing on the U.S. consumer, the mortgage market is dead and the people of this country involved in real estate, mortgage writing, home building, auto sales are hurting. They aren't making any money and they are hurting and won't be spending. The U.S. economy is a consumer driven economy. People aren't spending it is just right now catching up with the average joe.

    That is why we will see further downside weakness in the markets. There will be rallies trade them accordingly.

    Happy Trades!
    :D :D :D :D

    I'm still short the housing and financial sectors.
  2. We are just getting started...
  3. I thought it was over, but I'm starting to wonder if what we've seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg!!

    Oil is a concern. Who wahts to live 60 miles from employment and have to heat a mammoth 3000 sqft McMansion?

    But my biggest concern is mortgage rates. I was on the phone today with a lender from some company discussing another matter. The issue of rates came up. He was shocked at the spike on rates Friday. They were already in an uptrend and may have started to accelerate.

    I was planning on buying some property late this year in anticipation of super low rates, high inflation, and an end to the housing decline. Time to reconsider!!
  4. People are still dying over Chernoyble. Think about it.
  5. Well the question is do you think we will rally from this point(aside from BEAR market Rallies) or do we head lower?

    With all the negatives weighing on the markets I Suggest the markets will continue their down trend.
  6. subban


    No, with Bear Stearns and Lehman yet to crash we still have a way too go
  7. wait til the credit card companies start admitting that they are in real trouble. its the next shoe to drop.
  8. PJT



    Also, it hasn't been a "subprime" crisis for many months now.

    We are all subprime now. You, me, and Thornburg Mortgage etc.

    Shorting can be treacherous however due to furious bear market rallies out of nowhere.

    Be nimble and don't try to pay for $5500 hookers on your credit card or carry overnight shorts into helicopter drops.
  9. Yes. Subprime is well cooked and done.

    Now time to well cook Alt-A and prime.
    Many prime assets are going upside down, more so the leveraged wall street bankers assets.....more to come.
  10. Now I know why so many of you lose money.

    I saw it all along.

    Happy Trades!:D :D :D :D
    #10     Mar 10, 2008