https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/politics-that-work/ A predictable chart from such a site. GDP includes far more than products that are available for export. For instance, if AMZN is in Washington, that counts for billions in GDP for Washington but the bulk of that "product" is simply the buying and selling of goods among interested parties. GDP also includes gov't spending and given the massive gov't spending in blue states - the GDP figure will always be slanted in that direction. Tariffs are proposed on actual physical products, which is a subset of GDP.
A US tightening policy on a couple of fronts leading to a wiff of a global US dollar credit crunch(LIBOR-OIS) and a ten over two treasury spread heading to zero ae fundamental problems. Uncertainty regarding this trade war creates vol. and a bearish bias IMO . I hope talk of currency devals and reducing bid on US sovereign debt will be restrained. Rare earths and pork bellies rhetoric quid pro quo are encouraged to blowoff steam and work this out with a Trump favoring political deal that will not seriously damage the Chinese long range plans too much and we can all go home in one peice. Unintended consequences are a danger.....you can't game this forward accurately...and markets know this. Further, for anyone to believe , or relish the hope , that 30 years of entrenched accepted policy can be clawed back is not reasonable IMO. So red states net even in a trade skirmish when all is said and done. At what cost?
Expect things to become more ugly. In the end I believe the situation on the US front will be far better, however the path could indeed be quite painful. Chin up, eyes forward and don't short vol for a while.
No crap, it’s a biased site. You think foxnews would compile government economic data and overlay that with voting records to prove that blue states produce more gdp? Government spending is a form of economic production: roads, buildings and services. Or are you suggesting we change the definition of gdp. With respect to amazon: that will qualify under exports and imports. The net impact will be zero. Tariffs can be levied on services. In this case it’s on manufactured goods. Finally I think it’s cute that you didn’t quote my post. I guess you didn’t want me to see your reply. PS: I am for trade rules against China. The government of China subsidizes industries in order to have them dominate the international landscape.