Geez, I hope my post didn't make it seem like I wanted to break my foot of in someone's arse:eek: Maybe I should tone it down a bit. It's all in good fun.
No no no. Whenever I see a thread losing direction, my only response is silliness. As far as Cables vino, that vintage may be an expiration date! Sometimes salad dressing comes in fancy bottles.
I think this thread has gone way beyond losing direction, it's totally out there! (You could be right about that being the expiration date, I don't feel very well this morning Oh well, I guess I'll use the rest to clean the green stuff off the patio....)
Forex is a risk transaction between counterparties. Your A sells to B and B sell to C, etc. and all profit at the end can be true only in the case of stocks, when A issues stock through an IPO. Even in that case, when these transactions are viewed relative to benchmark returns, they are zero-sum (commissions not accounted for). It is also troublesome that in an effort to provide support for your argument you invoke infinities. Yes, in an infinity hotel, everybody can get a room even if every room is full (Hilbert's paradox). But in the real finite world, the total combined GDP is something in the order of maybe 50 trillion USD and given that on a daily basis, more than 2 trillion USD trade in forex, it is implied gloriously that the game is zero-sum, otherwise the game would increase the GDP by a sizable factor every year. Given the fact that world GDP is unaffected from a forex game that in every 25 or so days, the same amount is traded, this is another proof for you that forex is a zero-sum game. On the contrary, stock IOPs increase GDP in specific cases involving productivity growth. By calling an argument academic you are not in any way undermine its significance or truth. There is a wide consensus in he financial world that forex is a zero-sum game. You have not provided proof for it being otherwise, except for your call to infinite money and traders, which is of course false, no such thing exists.
Guys, this isn't freshman week at the markets. All instruments are virtually zero-sum. Sure, equities might be the exception, supposing you're holding from DOW 5K! Buy and hold no longer works when the FED rewrote the boom-bust cycle to every 4 years x several orders of magnitude. What other useless crap can we debate about? How about if TA "Works"??! Oh, now there's a gem
Why not call it academic theory when that is exactly what it is, theory, there's a disconnect from reality. That might be ok for some mid term college paper but in reality it means nothing. You can't possibly prove that speculative forex trading is zero sum, you simply don't have access to enough accurate data to be able to even reach that conclusion logically let alone prove it, in fact it's more probable to be non zero sum. You don't seem to understand that not all participants are speculating when they buy and sell currencies, for example the BOJ (quote) "between April 1991 and December 2000 bought U.S. dollars on 168 occasions for a cumulative amount of $304 billion and sold U.S. dollars on 33 occasions for a cumulative amount of $38 billion", and that's just one example of one central bank intervention, there are numerous non-speculative participants in the forex market every single trading day.
Well seeing as we're this far off the beaten track sure, why not! Of course TA 'works', charts are an accurate representation of historical price, what's not to work
yes it is extremely easy for a enwcomer to make money particularly in forex. my sincere advice is to mortgage ur house and max out ur credit card and trade ur way to 100 mill.
That seems a bit extreme, I'm sure a more moderate approach would be better! ....on the other hand you could always settle for being the average suburban, middle class, middle income Joe Shmoe, existing on the edge of poverty and dying broke. Yep that's a much better choice, terminally boring but at least it's safe, eh