Dow was down yesterday, SPX was up a puny amount. No bottom that I see. Yet. Overnight futures reflect indecision. And oh BTW Fed minutes get released this afternoon. One more thing $DXY seems unstoppable, which overall is not good for stonks.
To make back a 20% dip a 25% rise is needed. Or IOW 25% more than 20%. Some would call that close. I wouldn't.
The current inflation is driven largely, but not wholly, by externalities. We are getting little help from the federal government's weak administrative side and an intentionally disabled and shut down legislative side. In an ideal world, these two sides of our government would function constructively together and would have, by now, made a better start on bringing more substantive relief from the current inflation. As these parts of government are not functioning well, I expect we will have to depend wholly on another part of government, our fed, to tighten until demand is vanquished. That will bring unemployment and a deep recession. We are at the beginning of that journey. If the market has already discounted our journey's destination, then we are near a bottom; otherwise not. IMO, the odds favor "not yet." Patience, however, is a difficult game to play. P.S. The adjectives "innovative", "clever", "forceful" and "energetic" are not adjectives I would use to describe the current administration. Instead I would use "law-abiding", "obedient", and "sincere" --- along the lines you might use to describe your grandmother.
It seems to me that this market is facing much stronger head winds than during the financial meltdown. The fact that we've only retracted this much is amazing. If oil keeps falling that will help. For the next few days the charts say we'll see a minor upswing but it would only take 1 of several events to happen to drive us back down. JMO, but it's anyone's guess and my crystal ball is in the shop being repaired...
From my forex years i just can say inflation is not bad if everyone is having it. Especially Europe (EURUSD volume) and Japan... Ofc there are exceptions, but they don't matter too much (Switzerland etc.). It can still mean a strong USD as Euro and Yen inflate. Other countries need dollars anyway for trade. So the Feds not likely to be more extremely hawkish and that would be bullish on equities. All IMHO ofc. We will see. Bets can still be placed.
WTF is anyone looking at ummm charts presently? Specifically $DXY and CL and the Yield Curve and allllll the major indices.
That is exactly that- if everyone relevant has (more) inflation then you, your inflation doesen't matter.