Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by losemind, Aug 21, 2012.
Could you please point me to good solid credible analysis?
As long as the weather stays hot in big corn producing states then expect some upwards pressure on corn price.
That said if the price stays this high, the demand will start to drop. Open interest has dropped a little bit.
But I don't really care about these factors and believe it's already baked into the price.
Technically speaking I feel we're near price areas in the grains where I'd like to short them. But I wouldn't short corn because I regard corn as the strongest performing grain and the one most susceptible to a price spike if the weather somehow gets even hotter.
So I'm considering shorting Wheat or Oats right now. I'd rather long corn or soybeans.
I respect your Opinion.
But, please let me tell you something.
Do not short Wheat.
Buy and Sell it,
is a better Strategy,
if you want to involve with it.
Wheat is very strange,
can raise without to happen anything and the opposite,
can drop without to happen anything.
I do not think anyone really knows where the high will be. If you have the capital, shorting corn is fine. I would trade a spread on the front month, but this would be assuming the crop next year will be better. CME options are the best for this.
I have closed my December 2012 CBOT Corn Positions with a small Loss.
In the meanwhile i have make many trades to it.
Right now i am neutral.
I can not predict it well.
Also, i watch Soybeans.
It will be a key factor for Corn raise,
if continuous to raise.
Right now my exposure in Grains are in 2 positions.
Long March 2013 Kansas City Wheat / Short March 2013 CBOT Wheat,
Long May 2013 Kansas City Wheat / Short May 2013 CBOT Wheat.
I watch also very close the Weather in the Hard Red Winter Wheat USA States.
Exist a prediction for Kansas & Oklahoma that will receive good Amounts of Precipitation the next 5 Days.
For Weather, i watch very close these 3 Internet Sites many times per day:
1) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ ,
2) http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml ,
3) http://water.weather.gov/precip/ .
Also, i have read yesterday,
It will take about 15" of rain to break the drought, but that didn't matter today, when traders were focused on broad liquidation moves.
Now, exist and another tiny thing relative with these.
If exist finally a Good Rain,
will affect it a huge a high Evaporation Rate,
because exist a prediction for high temperatures in the places that will drop that Rain.
Also, i make patience because i believe that later this Wheat Calendar Year 2012-2013,
USA Wheat Exports will raise a huge.
i have find something quite interesting.
It is here:
Separate names with a comma.