Or is it different this time? If you took the time to read the thread than PLEASE answer the poll. It will only take you an additional second!
NO CRASH! Not until: (1) The world has given up on the $USD, and (2) The world has lost confidence in the Fed counterfeiting machine. When those happen, there will be a crash which nothing will be able to stop.
It seems the market has topped here, and a 6-10% decline is likely but not sure about the crash. Looking to go long around 65 Week MA.
Voted with the currently existing majority (bit bearish). Hmm. Anyway, points in favor are that this move is extended, and that there's all kinds of potholes out there next week. I wouldn't look for more than 5% to the downside, though.
Yes, it appears to be "different" this time. Instead of analysts pumping stocks (2000) we have the talking heads on CNBC, not to mention Cramer, Kudlow, and the "Fast Easy Money" gang. The US dollar value troubles me....and (I'm sure) Benny. The FED is caught between a rock and a hard place. Raise interest rates and risk killing domestic growth. Lower interest rates and the dollar continues to slide increasing inflation. Leave rates where they are? Any Economists here that have been in the markets for over 20 years and have an opinion? (Please, no post 2001 "newbie" trader replies)
Haven't we been in a correction just this summer? Why would it crash again!? http://www.morningstar.com/cover/pfvgraph.html
Fed and Gummint CHOOSE (a) big-time inflation and (b) destruction of the $USD over all alternatives... regardless of the financial damage to US citizens. There's a better chance of Dow 100,000 than a crash of any kind. Of course, it won't be good when Dow = 100K... it will be from currency debasement and very high inflation.
we all know this rally is NOT sustainable. There are indicators ( no, not price based ) that will tell us when the markets will turn. The Big boys have started distributing, the collapse will come when they are done. Probably after 2008.
The current recovery is based on hope - hope being a good thing which can take the market a long way. Hope though is fragile and can be crushed during times of structural change. I would say that there may be a "correction" against the joy induced from the knowledge that a Bernanke put exists. Then again, fed easing is by my reckoning bearish for stocks - not bullish as so many seem to think. Depends on your time horizon. If it goes below prior lows then all bets are off. And since the dimensions of the financial iceberg that's been scaring the market isn't known the counterpart of hpe - fear - could take the market anywhere. In summary, if it corrects it could correct big style.