IMHO, markets go up and down b/c of TA. Markets have profitable patterns. Random Walk Theory is like the Eff. Market Theory. Academic. Market is not academic.
Insider trading...! The sure way to riches...! The part about the supply and demand of an asset is actually quite valuable information.
So feel free to explain how you assign significance to patterns...!? See the scenario I laid out above... A double bottom on a 1 minute chart vs. a bear flag on 15 minute chart... Which is more valuable?
Yes, that is why trading is so difficult. And that is also, why i am a genious, because i know how to read the charts correctly. Nobody said it would be easy, but it can be done. I just told you guys how i do. If you believe it or not, is up to you, i dont care. Good afternoon
LOL You think not complex enough. Daytrading is much more complex then longer timetrading. All timeframes have special rules, based on historical facts, made rules by the history. For your example, you must look on the 1h chart and the 4h chart, as well to the daily, then the 30min, 15min, 5min.... 1min. Its not so easy, how you think.
But I happen to be a great daytrader despite the fact that I don't practice it anymore...! I don't think that you get the fact that they're all actually the same chart! A 5 min. chart has 5, 1 min bars... 15 min. chart has 3, 1 min. bars... I'm not here to poach a method, you guys can relax... I just want a scientific explanation for the significance of the patterns. Let's just do the "W" double bottom... Everyone is familiar with that... If you include all time frames of formation and a long enough data set I doubt you would get more than 50/50 out of it...! These patterns are a part of Fractal Geometry... You usually get a pattern, within a pattern, within a pattern... So how do you assign significance scientifically...??? Statistics works but only on a limited set... Personally, I prefer to play "hot potato" with the market... I see a green bar on my time frame... I buy... If it goes my way I hold... If it stops moving, I get out...! I could probably teach you guys the prop system that used when trading if you're interested...! I might do it if I can get more than 3 different people interested and I'll do it on another thread...
On fractals and scaling in finance page 39 Mandelbrot suggests that price changes over fixed clock intervals are more chaotic than price changes from successive transactions or based on volume variations... So the key to your riddle may be to move away from time based charts and towards tick or volume based charts...
You know, i am the true Master of patterns in the markets. The charts are like a open book for me. Of course its pretty hard to learn this all, a lot of stuff. You are right, patter in pattern in pattern, the more the better. And yes its the same product at the same time, but its not the same chart, every timeframe is a own chart, thats why you have them. The difficult thing is to know, when all important timeframe patterns move into each other and break through the blockage of energy cycles restistance, after the law of the lowest resistance, then price moves, in other words, you can clearyl analysis when the big players decide when to buy or sell, exactly the timepoint, because nothing in the market happens without a reason. The big players know everything and on the charts are in reality all informations written in, you need to know, to predict the future price move odds. And the key to this is like always STATISTICS. You can test and prove every idea with statistics and see if it have any value or not. About your problem for patterns in patterns, you must know this is pretty difficult and also for me sometimes i am wrong with the exactly correct timepoint right before prices move. But i found many tools to determinate it so exact as possible. I give you one clue about this problem, there is always one bigger timeframe what rules the patterns on the lower timeframes, as long you dont have this bigger picture right, price will not move, cuz how i said, they are always pattern in pattern in pattern. And before price moves, there is always a lot blockage of energy what must be tested and retested in a trading range of high and lows, before price breaks out. But the markets are truly rigged and move in regular orders. But how i said its pretty difficult to figure all this stuff out and i can understand that you are confused about this. So, the best for you might be your hot potato trading style. In the end the game is only about making money and doing a successfull business. How you do it, doesnt matter in the end. Good luck