The path where those patterns were successful was one among many possible paths. No one says you can't find successful patterns... I think you need better understanding of "randomness".
Havn't "herd" from the Maestro this week. Might the disclosure of penny-stock company be a factor? Just a random thought.
False. However each member of the herd keeps constant distance with its immediate neighbours and follows the center of gravity of the herd. That's well enough for a profitable strategy.
you are correct,the herd also uses its sense of smell for food and predators,ears,,eyesight,taste,ground vibration,and natural hereditary tendencies to survive,in the meanwhile appearing not too bright and random as practically every species has a natural predator,making it prey
When you study a stochastic process you can't draw conclusions from observing a single run (realization)... Let's say you're studying the coin toss process (A=head, B=tail). Your run is AAAAABBBBB. Can you conclude that trend-following works on coin tossing? Let's say you have a different (unknown) process with the same A and B. You've spotted a pattern: When ABAB appears then you have high probability of B coming next. How long should your run be if you want to prove that pattern holds true? 1000 draws? 100000 draws? infinite draws? The answer is the length doesn't matter as you can't prove the pattern works. That's because you can't draw conclusions from a single run.
This question is answered in probability theory. Probability theory doesn't deal with "true". I don't know how you make these things up. Confidence intervals is the answer. "True" is the subject of religion and metaphysics.
I am in the hospital this week; having a minor surgery. I am proud of my company; I have built it from scratch and will be there as long as it takes to make it a huge success! Cheers, MAESTRO