Do you see patterns in Random Walks?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by atlTrader666, Aug 10, 2011.

  1. Another unprovoked attack by Mike805.

    Mike, get a life...
     
    #311     Aug 30, 2011
  2. The stock indexes complex (that's right worldwide!) are heading to make a deep meander low around Sep 19 2011. Have any of the geniuses, PhD's and other ilk any idea of what I'm posting about?. If so, has anyone got the faintest idea of how low in price and deep in volume the meander will get?. How much can the FED and the ECB jointly attenuate such coming meander?.
    You may raise your hand and speak or STFU and go back to your PhD studies. Pardon my bluntness, but most here are not even in the neighbourhood to even post. See you all on the 20th.
     
    #312     Aug 30, 2011
  3. Well Mike, then let me say as someone who was in a finance PhD program at a top 5 institution (for this purpose I'll loosely qualify as UChicago, Harvard, MIT, Wharton, and Stanford, in no particular order), you are wrong.

    There is no such thing as a serious part-time PhD program. In fact, all reputable PhD programs require that you sign a contract stating that you will NOT be part time and will NOT work/study elsewhere during the program.


     
    #313     Aug 30, 2011
  4. What in the world are you going on about? I have no idea what you are talking about. You sound like you don't either.

     
    #314     Aug 30, 2011
  5. That may be the case in certain instances for certain programs. It certainly is not the case for all programs. You're making a blanket statement that is not accurate.

    I am an electrical engineering PhD dropout (got an MS) from a top 10 engineering school. I worked in industry during the last two years of my program and was given a small amount degree credit due to the fact that there was overlap. I also personally knew 4 other students who were doing the exact same thing. Professional industry experience was encouraged, but, not at the expense of coursework.

    Also, for engineering grads., Stanford allows the option, with instructor and department approval of course. I do not know the policies of the other schools you mention.
     
    #315     Aug 30, 2011
  6. Its a rebuttal to an wrong assumption, not an attack. Do you have a degree beyond undergraduate?
     
    #316     Aug 30, 2011
  7. Fair enough - I thought the previous guy who claimed to be a in part-time program is in a finance/economics program; upon rereading, it's in math - which I suppose could be the case. I speak only for the finance/economics/insurance/etc programs.

    The anti-intellectualism on this board is absurd. Moreover, it's from the crowd that could barely reason out of a paper bag (but surely, knows by intuition where the dow SHOULD be).

     
    #317     Aug 30, 2011
  8. It'd be easier to train a baboon to play Mozart than explaining what I meant in a manner that you would understand. Having a PhD is not a requirement for intelligence. You missed the bus, the short bus to school. You can still short the market, but you won't either because you can't handle the risk. Capisci? :)
     
    #318     Aug 30, 2011
  9. Let's try some basic logic for you my friend: "Having a PhD is not a requirement for intelligence" -> you are ABSOLUTELY right. However, this statement does not imply "not having a PhD is a requirement for intelligence". That's the kind of stuff you learn if you stayed in school.

    Oh... and to sink it down to your level - kah-PEE-shee?

     
    #319     Aug 30, 2011
  10. I've found the same thing, things work for a while and don't work some time later. Is true-false, or works-doesn't work, are they permanent or not-permanent states? My experience (limited and crummy as it is) supports the idea that all life is change -- and the change occurs over time, rarely instant. The change, as a flock changing direction, would follow some kind of bell curve distribution over time with "early adopters", "most adopters", and "late to the party adopters", with a logit curve cumulative dist function. (This is a guess; I haven't seen any research, opinions, or studies on this point). I think a part of "randomness" is that process of true-false changing over time; something non-random would follow rules, but what if the rules change? (This is only my opinion though)

    For drawdown, I am the same way, always wondering if this is the week a good system I have will stop working, it's difficult to tell when that happens. Here's a formula I have:
    expected max losing streak = ln(1/number of trades) / ln(% of losers)
    It's from another thread on system development from acrary, I hope it may be useful.
    EDIT: Actually I don't know where it's originally from, a google search turned up a few hits.
     
    #320     Aug 30, 2011