Yes, that is one of the 8 data points, the SPX was higher in Oct. 2009 than Oct. 2008. (even though the bear didn't end until Mar. 2009.)
I don't know why it is so hard to understand that markets are not ergodic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergodicity If markets are non-ergordic, it doesn't matter what usually happens. If markets are non-ergodic it means you can't use the past to predict the future lol. It is just not that hard of a concept to understand. Something that should be so obvious to any trader after 1-2 years of trading.
Ergodic... who speaks like that... this is ET, speak plainly So what do you trade and what are your returns Are you big
Really? I already figured you out. You are NOT a real trader at all. I have no idea who you are, but you offer nothing, but bullshit talk. Maybe see a psychiatrist? @Baron This person is not right in the head. This is a mentally ill person @Magna knows what I am talking about (did you ever report the Noxzema dude to the authorities?), and how I am able to spot these "people". "He sounds more like an academic theory science trader. Those types make horrible real world traders." "He's not like you and me. Authentic true Traders that are Elite" "Day trading the market has nothing to do with basic textbook support resistance zones." "Besides, those are rather overrated anyways. They're rather imaginary only evident in far hindsight." "The day trading market is a much more dynamic, fluid, moody beast to understand vs sleepy safe long term investing." "It's a rather complex procedural art to observe, plan, anticipate and when to strike the market day" "I appreciate the grind of fortune treasure seekers. I'm one too. I certainly paid dues." "But you should also learn from time and gain wisdom and continually question things, ways and methods. Perspectives, angles. To gain refined understanding. Generating rich plutonium in the end, ideally." "Some gamblers at casinos are 86 years old... still determined to hit the grand Jackpot any day now. Sadly, after all that time and expense they've gained no wisdom, lessons and perspective on the fallacy of their minds" "Not everyone on this planet are cut out to be Indiana Jones in search of crystal skulls. I found spirituality and God along my journey and cleansed myself of porn and movies and computer games and materialism evil nonsense" "The market is a thing of beauty and mystery, isn't it. Observing it, understanding it, trading it. Many souls attempt to strike it rich, to solve the conundrum with their own rationale hand" @Max E. Holy Shit, we were interacting with a super fucking crazy person!!!
Of course markets are dynamic and can't be predicted all the time. Some of the time for some of us is enough.
I misread your post - for some reason I thought you meant in a month. This said, a down year is relatively rare so not sure how indicative this 8 out of 8 is. Would you buy stocks here?
here's log returns > .015 and next day's for past 10 yrs. I am buying some but timeframe is greater than 12 months. Anyone notice ETFs below nav??? Code: Ticker SPY NEXT Date 2022-07-15 0.018925 -0.008291 2022-07-19 0.026661 0.006353 2022-07-27 0.025635 0.012464 2022-08-03 0.015538 -0.000676 2022-08-10 0.020787 0.000000 2022-08-12 0.016787 0.004112 2022-09-07 0.017806 0.006515 2022-09-09 0.015416 0.010690 2022-09-28 0.019485 -0.021110 2022-10-03 0.026059 0.030516 2022-10-04 0.030516 -0.002331 2022-10-13 0.026049 -0.023052 2022-10-17 0.025372 0.011681 2022-10-21 0.024011 0.012162 2022-10-25 0.015842 -0.007563 2022-10-28 0.023512 -0.007250 2022-11-10 0.053497 0.009632 2022-11-30 0.031015 -0.000736 2022-12-29 0.017840 -0.002638 2023-01-06 0.022673 -0.000567 2023-01-20 0.018458 0.011927 2023-03-03 0.015911 0.000693 2023-03-14 0.016395 -0.006274 2023-03-16 0.017393 -0.011762 2023-04-27 0.019712 0.008499 2023-05-05 0.018344 0.000266 2023-11-02 0.018983 0.009082 2023-11-10 0.015484 -0.000954 2023-11-14 0.019215 0.002115 2024-02-22 0.020484 0.000689 2024-07-31 0.016124 -0.014262 2024-08-08 0.022854 0.004400 2024-08-13 0.016312 0.003150 2024-08-15 0.016995 0.002239 2024-09-19 0.016921 -0.001730 2024-11-06 0.024561 0.007703 2025-01-15 0.018027 -0.001925 2025-02-28 0.015485 -0.017675 2025-03-14 0.020445 0.007682 2025-03-24 0.017750 0.002401 2025-04-09 0.099863 -0.044808
What are you trying to prove ? There’s more NEXT up days than down days. But that’s also true without the prior > 0.015 I believe. Anyway … NEXT was yesterday.
Thursday's action was just a VIX tremor. The VIX will be below 27 soon enough, unless the current situation morphs into the 2008-2009 market. That was really the only recent time with elevated VIX. Every other time VIX>50 was a sell VIX trigger. Even on Black Monday 1987 the VIX peaked on the day after even though the SPX came back a little. Of course the VIX was > 100 for 8 straight days. That must have been a golden time for day trading.