Discussion in 'Trading' started by GlobalFinancier, May 29, 2006.
yeah, read that article and criticized the guy here in a previous thread, prolly wrongly so...he's right on almost everything there even tho i don't agree when he states that fellas that have access to the best analytics are the one destined to success while those who don't won't stand a chance.
I appreciate the thread. Perhaps I can offer a small example.
Hot weather in the midwest is threatening the corn crop. The U.S. is the world's largest exporter of corn, making up 70% of the world's exports.
At the same time that we might have a diminished corn crop, the U.S. demand for ethanol has resulted in a situation in which--for the first time--more corn is being diverted for use as fuel than as food.
In the futures markets, corn is up around 20% since May, having recently broken to multi-month highs.
For the first time, we're seeing farmers forego planting of other food crops in order to grow the sugar, corn, and other crops needed for ethanol.
How will this affect inflation? Interest rates? Fed policy?
How will this affect countries dependent upon the U.S. for their foodstuffs?
How will this affect our own agricultural markets?
IMHO, these are the complexities that underlie new market trends.
You could say the markets are infinetly complex. That being said there are only a few important elements that actually count; simple really.
guess which choice I picked in the poll?
Snowflakes and ocean waves are a couple of the most complex things on the face of the earth. No two snowflakes or waves are alike but there are absolute consistencies in both. Each evolve daily like the markets. Each individual market is a like complex environment but there are absolute consistencies in each.
In regards to your blog, IMHO, 1 thru 4 need more work . . . a huge amount more but number 5 is spot on.
Do you fully appreciate the complexity of the markets?
Better teach us some tricks for squeezing money out of the markets.
Steenbarger should stick to psychology. There are thousands of ways of making money in the markets. From the list of 5 things he has observed, it seems like he has talked to once class of trader.
1) Scalpers do not have to know about intermarket relationships.
2) Scalpers do stick to particular instruments.
3) Sclapers market is the market.
5) This is a mental game and sharing ideas does not mean losing an edge.
Steenbarger's article reminds me of Alexander Elder's advice on trading setups. Elder was inventing new indicators and once said he thought he had found the holy grail. No one who has been trading successfully ever thinks that.
These people are just trying to make a buck. They should stick to what they are trained in.
Dudes, who had better insight than copper producer Phelps Dodge , who HEDGED AWAY BILLIONS in copper futures.
No one knows anything. The big winners are the fixers, and the lucky.
Which one are you?
All that proves is no one can predict the market. It doesn't prove that the only winners are those that either fix the market or are lucky. It proves even the biggest in the industry aren't too intelligent when it comes to understanding market movement and direction.
I'm not a fixer or lucky . . . I'm profitable.
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