Do you even enjoy trading?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by michael21, May 15, 2012.

  1. For the statistical minds out there...

    If a day-trader actively takes several (or more) trades thru an entire session, there is a 1/3 odds of hitting peak equity curve on first trade of the morning, 1/3 odds peak equity sometime midday and 1/3 odds peak equity on final trade of the day.

    That is just pure math, statistical odds of random distribution. No two ways about it... if you trade long enough, law of averages will certainly play out just like that.

    On a fundamental basis that unfolds because some days price action is most favorable for your approach early, other days in the mid-session, other days at the end. Not to mention the personal execution variables involved.

    Which means for those who trade all day every day, two-thirds of the time they will be frustrated at day's end because peak equity curve was reached way earlier several trades ago, and drawn down by the close.

    Statistically speaking, you are better off quitting every day at some point of averaged profit gains versus hitting it all from bell to bell.

    This has nothing to do with one's system or prowess or acumen as a trader. It is purely the universal laws of mathematics at work. No single trader on earth ever has or ever will end every day at their peak equity high. Matter of fact, no trader on earth ever ends even half their days at peak equity high over a long period of time.

    Universal laws of distribution at work there :)
     
    #51     May 17, 2012
  2. We all have our ideas on what's plausible or not. So let's meet in the middle and assume +5pts ES per week or +20pts per calendar month blended average... any way possible.

    +$1,000 per contract monthly. Now trade two contracts. Then five. Then ten. Then twenty. Stop right there at twenty contracts for the rest of your career.

    Same math, $20,000 per month / $240,000 per year. The ES does not shudder at all whether you are filling sim, filling one or ten or twenty contracts. The ES doesn't know and doesn't care... it's all on us for that.
     
    #52     May 17, 2012
  3. Where do they live? In Uganda?

    Even the King of Queens would have a hard time living like royalty on 120K.
     
    #53     May 17, 2012
  4. There are a lot of places in the U.S. where cost of living is a lot lower than big-city life. Right here in my town, you can buy a really nice, well-kept 2,400 sq ft house on five acres for less than $200k

    Not so much in the big cities, but then again you couldn't pay many of us $10 million to live in those places the rest of our lives.
     
    #54     May 17, 2012
  5. Point well made. Its all about adding size once you have hit that consistency.
     
    #55     May 17, 2012
  6. Human nature wants to limit risk by trading just one contract and making a bazillion points daily with that. Limited capital risk, unlimited reward. Who doesn't want that?

    Reality is, bigger size on smaller gains is where the daily grind works. Even the whales who hit huge scores do so on huge size. Nobody makes a living off one contract turned. But too many traders never move past that mentality.

    For some symbols there is a real limit to size. ES, NQ, 6E will easily handle ten - twenty contracts with minimal slippage, minimal partial fills and consistent execution in & out.
     
    #56     May 17, 2012
  7. Same here, 200K buys a whole lotta house.
     
    #57     May 17, 2012
  8. Brokers like Oanda say that they have no real position limits. Only trade size limits, which don't kick in till you are making 1000 bucks a pip.
     
    #58     May 17, 2012
  9. One of the things I like most about my system is that it basically gives me 1 or 0 trades per day per instrument 95% of the time, so I either end up at my high point of the day or I can tell myself there's always tomorrow. Only ~60% of days give me even 1 trade.

    On the 5% of days when I get more than 1 trade, the losses I take on that first trade are typically very small and the second trade is typically a win.

    On the .0001% of days with more trades that, the last one is nearly always a huge winner, paying me off for the frustration leading up to it.
     
    #59     May 17, 2012
  10. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    :D
    For months you've been bragging about Peoria being a "principle" city and now you're touting it as a small town?

    And you don't own a house, you live in an apartment. LOL
     
    #60     May 18, 2012