I joined an investment club in my community last month and attended the first meeting tonight. These aren’t investors like you and me. They are the majority of retail investors. They all talked about P/E ratios, and anecdotal BS regarding target and Costco and other stocks. None of them talked about, or wanted to hear about, the charts. im a former Financial advisor and I can state confidently that the vast majority of Financial Advisors know a lot more about bringing in new assets, than they do about moving averages. There is a subset of investors that focus on charts. Most focus on fundamentals.
what we had was a very anemic rally attempt that failed. You are being shortsighted and not seeing the forest for the trees. The price action in the charts the last few weeks and months, not few days was predictive of lower prices. Todays news was the catalyst, nothing more. the collective market is a lot smarter than individual investors are you the original posters cousin, or something LOL?
Since the last mini rally that ended around the second week of April, there hasn't been a sustained rally for more 2-3 days at most. This one lasted about 3-3.5 days if you count the intraday reversal last Friday. I'm not a fundamental analyst but there doesn't seem to be a reason to buy the markets except it's gotten cheaper but that's not compelling in a collapsing market. Unless JPow says he was indeed wrong and in fact he loves higher inflation and will immediately stop raising rates the market goes lower. That is exactly what he did in late December 2018 and the markets surged afterwards. S&P 500 went up 26% from 12/24/2018 to 5/1/2019. I remember that Christmas Eve 2018 it was ugly in the morning.
Which would be a great thing because forward prices are driven by fundamentals not by past prices. How much money is allocated into which corporations' shares or diverted from them is a function purely of perception and the analysis and action taken upon shifting fundamentals. Not past prices. Unfortunately a majority of the people on this website and elsewhere can't be bothered with putting in the work. Much easier to see everything through the lense of past prices dancing up and down on a nice visual representation of the the past.
Which would be much more news and fundamentally driven than interpreting it as reading tea leaves from price charts.
Agree with most that you said in this post but it has nothing whatsoever to do with historical prices on charts. The future is dictated not by past prices but by either a shift in the vectors/variables or a continuation. And those variables are informed not by past prices but by news and the perception thereof of the collective market
It is what it is. I don't predict the future based on charts, the charts only tell me what has been happening and I have to estimate the likelihood of it continuing or not based on various cues.
First a disclaimer: I don't trade daily charts. It's hard to see why anyone would be surprised by an extension of the down trend. I take notice of economic numbers as background info. I would never trade on news because it's impossible to quantify. Don't put orders at those lines. trade the reaction to them.
If they do not know how to read a stockchart, they might as well pack it in. Stockcharts represent all the positions of traders, investors and more importantly, the big boys (hedge funds, banks, brokers, mutual funds). In its purest form, nothing will replace price as a trading indicator. It is the most unbiased, objective indicator you can use if you trade or invest in the stockmarket. You can see if sentiment is changing, if trends have ended, etc. There is a lot more information in a stockchart than, most people think. Also, the same fools will listen to CNBC and Bloomberg and believe the hacks on TV mouth off nonsense daily and believe it too. And they wonder why they keep losing their monies?