Do you believe you can predict how far a market will go within a given time frame?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Gabfly1, Mar 9, 2010.

Do you believe you can predict how far a market will go within a given time frame?

  1. Yes

    30 vote(s)
    37.5%
  2. No

    50 vote(s)
    62.5%
  1. Gabfly1, you are not asking the right question :)

    First of all, what difference would it make what everyone believes. You should have formulated the question as "Is it possible to predict how far....?"

    Even if that was the question, it would still have a very simple answer "NO". Because no one can predict anything.

    Think again about the question you want to ask and you may actually get some useful answers :cool:
     
    #41     Mar 28, 2010
  2. Well, I am predicting that TM will not go above $ 90/sh by the 3rd week of July, and I am doing this with real money by selling the naked calls. This does not mean I am going to be 100% right, but I have enough confidence in this trade, to wager real money.
     
    #42     Mar 28, 2010
  3. just21

    just21

    Use historic volatility and project it forward. look at the ODDS cone in metastock.
     
    #43     Mar 28, 2010
  4. charts

    charts

    Whoever bought your calls predicts, for the same money, the opposite... :)
    Prediction has a cost. Somebody mentioned the second derivatives of price and volume... T'inkaboudit! :)
     
    #44     Mar 28, 2010