I'm not quite sure how to interpret your attachment. Are you predicting a specific price within a prescribed period of time? (EDIT: okay, I see that you are attempting to predict the day's HLC.) Also, I note that your probability distribution of projected price (or direction, I'm not sure which) has second decimal specificity. Reminds me of the old joke about the definition of a calculator: an instrument that allows you to take two seat-of-the-pants estimates, multiply them, and get accuracy to the 8th decimal point.
Yes, but not exactly. It's all relative. A 5 min signal will generate a smaller bounce, than a 1 hr signal. Also, depends on session volatility. From one day to the next. So it's relative to time frame, and relative to market context for that day. Still, none of it is precise. Just estimates of where it "should" go +/- 30%.
It fills the boredom and satisfies my curiosity about the beliefs of others. It also allows for an exchange of views. Thanks for asking.
If you could predict "how far a market will go within a given time frame" you could make a ton of money with options.
Yes i use 4 techniques to target price and time movement individually and/or collectively they are most often 100% correct, however the price-time movement is IRREGULAR being irregular means i don't expect to be correct 100% - it's a subjective trading method, but i Know i'll be correct often enough to be profitable 'predict' is of course an emotive term but essentially every time anyone makes a trade, simply by entering that trade they're 'predicting' the direction of the market, even tho they may only have a vague idea - or hope of how far that market will go within that timeframe
Still one cannot predict in the next minute whether your heart will continue to beat, no one can predict price movement.
Every trade which is entered by a trader is based on a prediction that it will be liquidated at a profit. So logically is there any trader who is not predicting? Of course you can change the semantics and say that you are entering a trade expecting or anticipating or foretelling a successful exit at a profit - its still the same thing. A market is technical so you can set up a statistical model with extremely high probability that forecasts the direction or large pattern of the day ahead. The question then is, to what degree does this help and inform the player?