Do you believe you can predict how far a market will go within a given time frame?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Gabfly1, Mar 9, 2010.

Do you believe you can predict how far a market will go within a given time frame?

  1. Yes

    30 vote(s)
    37.5%
  2. No

    50 vote(s)
    62.5%
  1. Just curious.
     
  2. lakai

    lakai

    yes easy to do
     
  3. Yes but not consistently. Simply, flip a coin multiple times and once in awhile you'll be right. :D

    Remember the old days of back in the 80's of stock market newsletters that were mailed (regular postal service as bulk mail) where someone would send out their market predictions to 1,000's of different people...each person getting a different prediction.

    Guess what, the marketer only needs to be right in a few of those newsletters to grab the attention of a few potential customers. :mad:

    Another question could be that if you're only right a few times out of many times of flipping the coin...can proper money management make you profitable after all the coin flips. :p

    Mark
     
  4. Personally, I don't quite equate trading with flipping coins. However, my own view is that prediction is neither possible nor necessary (although it would be delightful). I think trading is more about reasonably well-timed participation and reaction.
     
  5. I too do not equate trading to flipping coins.

    The point was that anybody can predict the exact price of how far the market wil go within a given time frame if they are allowed to guess at it multiple times or use whatever market analysis there using which was the point of my story analogy via the 80's stock market newsletter fraud.

    Therefore, the answer is YES. It can be done. The answer is NO that it can be done consistently.

    Mark
     
  6. But then it's not really prediction, is it? It is not foretelling the future with any discernible accuracy and reliability based on any specialized knowledge or ability. It's just haphazard guesswork. Therefore, your answer should be NO.
     
  7. Ahh ha...you're now adding additional information to your question after I've answered. :D

    Within the context of your original question without the new information...anybody can predict how far the market will go but nobody can do it consistently with reliability.

    However, within the context of the updated info you've added. Anybody can use what they consider to be "specialized knowlege, abilities, methods et cetera" to predict the exact price the markets will be at within a given time frame.

    They will "eventually" get it correct or someone else will if they are using the exact same specialized knowlege but they won't be able to do it consistently and most likely the total result won't be profitable. That's why there's always a winner in those contest for traders to pick a price where the markets will be at by end of year type of stuff. Traders get out their TA, fundamental analysis or whatever and make their best guesswork.

    There will be a winner and the others are losers. However, you won't see the same winners the next year and the year afterwards. Therefore, it can be done...just not with consistency.

    Mark
     
  8. You're being pedantic and it is not really adding value to the thread.
     
  9. Ok...so you only want those to agree with every word you say to make the thread valuable. :confused:

    I've clearly gave examples that anyone can make an accurate prediction at some point in time if they are allowed many chances at the prediction. Thus, is not a hypothetical situation, this is reality via the examples I've given.

    If you think those examples (trading contests, lotteries) are false or wrong...please prove your case to truly add value to the thread. Here's another example, I can predict that my neighbor will die tomorrow after finding out she has an inoperable brain tumor.

    I can make that prediction with the knowledge that 97% of patients with that type of brain tumor do die. If I'm wrong about tomorrow, I can than start again and make the prediction for the next day and so on for each/every day...eventually I will be right and someone that only knew about that one particular prediction day (when I was right) will think WOW...that's an incredible prediction.

    Next time don't make a poll with Yes or No. Just say NO. :cool:

    Mark
     
  10.  
    #10     Mar 9, 2010