Everyone knows that patterns repeat, just as everyone knows what habits they have - there is nothing magical or mystical about it, it is common sense! What becomes apparent to those who stay at it. is that, some patterns work better than others, and, some times are also better than others! Choosing the best pattern, and the best time, is a personal choice, and is but one important step to becoming a consistent profitable trader. The biggest obstacle -and this is not just my opinion, as big financial houses spend millions of $'s trying to improve same - is the psychological makeup of the trader. Until you really believe and understand this, then do not expect to make any real progress at trading, for YOU will not, that is a guarantee. It really does not matter if you use fractals, squiggly lines, volume spread analysis, or complicated spreads - if your mind is fuked up then you are just pissing against the wind, and believe me, I know what I am talking about!!!! The "holy grail" is, and has always been " within" - power and money has led men to do terrible acts in the name of "whatever you want to call it " - but once you open your mind to the facts, then the reality is there right in front of you, as the saying goes, " as plain as the nose on your face". If you really want to become a successful trader, then the first step is "awareness" - after that it gets much much harder J_S
I do believe the market is fractal (as defined by OP), but the fractals are getting smaller and harder to trade. When every TICK is challenged (by the faster than light algo's0, jesus, price is bandied back & forth into a flat line, the end of the trend end of the market Markets need a trend to survive; when the trend is dissected into smaller and smaller bytes...the trend disappears
My observation is that the intra-day is dominated by algo's that are constantly seeking "liquidity" at all sorts of s-t highs/lows...any pattern that would attract natural buyers/sellers is quickly faded by the algo's to "push" the market to a point of pain for whomever was trading that pattern...Most of the "trend" or whatever the path of least resistance may be, is accomplished in overnight trading and is typically far cleaner, in so far as, the path prices take... It's also why it becomes more difficult to try and position for any bigger move..because the overnight session will routinely flush RTH stops above and below and with smaller intra-day ranges (as evidenced by VIX, VXN, RVX), most traders have to be flat...
with you up to here. Cleaner? cleaner for who you think algos turn off in wee hrs and go to sleep, like you and me? wtf you talking about??
It's not difficult to see ES is headed for the stops above 2100. That's not to say that scenario can be played without a watchful eye toward what's happening every moment of the journey but the premise of triggering stops along the way is just more of the same repetitive logic.
http://time.com/money/3680863/millennials-stock-market-not/ they don't want IN because they perceive there is no upside to being there, no reliable trend, level playing field it's sad
Perhaps Fractal is designed by market makers to be effective for : Q http://www.mypivots.com/dictionary/definition/121/running-the-stops Running the Stops Dictionary Running the Stops Search Dictionary Definition of 'Running the Stops' This mostly happens in the futures market (although it can happen in any market) when liquidity is low and the market breaches an important resistance or support level. Stops that are waiting just beyond the support/resistance level are triggered which cause the market to move quickly in the prevailing direction triggering more stops that are beyond the level and creating a snowball effect. This can only happen if the number of contracts at the stop levels exceed the number of contracts being bid or offered at those same levels. Say the market is moving down we have a DOME that looks something like this: #Bid Price 20 980 40 979 35 978 We can see how many contracts are bid at each level but for obvious reasons we cannot see how many stops are at each level. This is because stops are usually held on the broker's servers or in the minds of traders watching the market. If there are 30 stop contracts that will be triggered when 980 gets touched then 20 of these stop contracts will immediately absorb the 20 contracts bid at this level and also clear out 10 of the 40 contracts bid at 979. Now say that there are 80 stop contract at the 979 level. There are only 30 contracts still bid at this level because the previous stop action cleared out 10 of them. These 80 contracts will clear out the next 30 and the remaining 50 contracts will clear out the 35 contract bid at 978. If these stop orders are being held electronically at trader's brokers' servers then these stop orders will be triggered instantaneously and will cause a ripple or cascading effect until all the stop orders have been filled forcing the market to move quickly in one direction. Running the stops is when a trader (or group of traders) anticipate that this scenario will unfold at a price level and they push trading to that level to trigger these stops. Their strategy is to hold a position in the prevailing direction and when the market spikes in that direction to let the stops run their course and then close out their positions when the speed of the movement slows down or stops thereby maximizing their profits. UQ
Ok, it's probably too vague...not necessarily "cleaner"; I agree that it's still heavily influenced by Europe and Asia...so I'll rescind that comment... The second point is that as VIX declines and as daily ranges contract, there is less room to put on a position at one extreme of the daily range and have enough buffer to withstand whatever the overnight session brings...this obviously favors the bulls as the VIX and range contract normally in bullish trends...