Do you believe in seasonality? (Trader's Almanac)

Discussion in 'Trading' started by a529612, Aug 4, 2006.

  1. They said August is historically a down month since 1998...
  2. bl82


    This message has been kicking around in the media for the past few days.

    As for seasonality, I have some belief, but most of all I believe this year would have been a great one to sell in May and go away...
  3. cashonly

    cashonly Bright Trading, LLC

    I think there is some significance to it, but like anything it's not 100%. Think more in terms of seasonality for specific stocks. For example, check out MWV, OMX, ODP, and SPLS over the years in the July-September timeframe.
  4. Seasonality is definitely a very valuable input, but should not be relied on exclusively.

    Note in July Nattie Gas bottomed out precisely:

  5. cashonly

    cashonly Bright Trading, LLC

    Where did you get that chart?
  6. That website is an excellent resource! Thanks for sharing.
  7. cashonly

    cashonly Bright Trading, LLC

  8. Since 1998? That's called "small sample bias". September and October have generally been the worst months for the market based on long-term data. The biggest and best meltdowns have occurred during those months. The "Sell in May and go away" adage is being replaced with "Sell in May, stay sober until October, so you can buy bargains that you can sell in May at a profit". You heard it here! Stay sober just a little longer.
    #10     Aug 20, 2006